FX.co ★ Markets continue to swing ahead of June Fed meeting

Global markets continued to trade sideways with occasional movements driven by local events. The focus remains on the outcome of the Fed meeting due next week.

Reportedly, federal funds rate futures rose again on Thursday, indicating a 74.8% probability of a pause in interest rate hikes, compared to 63.3% the previous day. Apparently, voting members of the Fed remain divided on whether or not to raise interest rates, giving hope to many investors that the central bank may still pause the rate hikes.

Additionally, positive news came from the US regarding unemployment benefit claims. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased significantly to 261,000, compared to 233,000 the previous week and a forecast of 235,000. This hit the highest level since 2021, indicating a potential cooling of the labor market. This made many believe that the chances of seeing a 0.25% increase in interest rates dipped.

Unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada suggest that things could take a negative turn when the Fed raises rates by 0.25%. It can either stimulate market growth or put pressure on it.

With the economic calendar empty today, markets may continue to swing before the start of the Fed meeting next week.

Forecasts for today:

EUR/USD

The pair remains trading under the level of 1.0785. Staying around this price, together with the overall expectations ahead of the Fed meeting, the decline in European stock markets, and futures on US stock indices, may trigger a deeper fall to 1.0700.

GBP/USD

The pair may see a downward correction towards 1.2480 if traders continue to be active below 1.2535.