FX.co ★ Forecast for AUD/USD on June 7, 2023

AUD/USD:

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the benchmark interest rate from 3.85% to 4.10% against expectations of unchanged rates. This helped the Australian dollar reach the target level of 0.6670 and the Marlin oscillator in entering the area of the uptrend. However, the balance indicator line (red) holds back the aussie from rising further, indicating that this is a corrective growth, say, from the branch of decline since May 10. The current price represents a 61.8% correction from that movement.

A reversal is possible, but so is a rise to the next level of 0.6730, which would be a 76.4% correction from the branch of decline since May 10. However, we are more interested in the situation with the other central banks. Contrary to expectations, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Australia raised rates in May-June. Today, Canada will announce its rate decision, with the forecast unchanged at 4.50%. If the rate is raised, it provides almost complete certainty that the Federal Reserve will also raise rates at its upcoming meeting on June 14. Tomorrow, India will announce its decision. The current rate is 6.50%, and the forecast is the Bank will leave it unchanged. If Canada does not raise rates but India does, it will also be a sign of a rate hike in the US. Investors are aware of such signs, so the dollar may begin to appreciate immediately.

On the 4-hour chart, a price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed. The first reversal signal is present, so we are waiting for further developments. The main scenario is bearish. Consolidation below 0.6670 opens the target of 0.6628. This level coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart, so its breakthrough can sharply intensify further decline. The strategic target is 0.6425.