FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 1

Pound rose, while euro showed a downward movement on Wednesday as demand declined due to preliminary inflation estimates from France and Germany pointing to a slowdown from 5.9% to 5.1% and 7.2% to 6.1%, respectively. Such data could convince the European Central Bank to take a pause in its aggressive rate hike cycle.

Shortly after the opening of the US session, euro recovered its losses, while pound rose even further, thanks to the Fed explicitly stating a pause in its rate hike cycle. They added that this would mean reaching the ceiling for interest rates, which implies the gradual easing of monetary policy.

But as mentioned earlier, inflation in Europe will slow down slightly faster than expected. It will fall from 7.0% to 6.5%, which could result in euro confidently moving downward. Pound may be dragged along with it.

EUR/USD hit 1.0635, which led to a decrease in short positions. As euro remains at extremely low levels, while the market ignores signals from technical analysis, a return to the current lows will lead to a further decline.

Smoother fluctuations could be seen in GBP/USD. Last week, the quote slowed down its downward cycle, leading to consolidation and then a complete rebound. Pound will recover if the quote stays above 1.2500. However, pressure on euro limits the upward movement of pound, so its rise may be hampered or delayed.