FX.co ★ EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis for May 15

EUR/USD

Higher timeframes

The bears continued to drive the market down on Friday, marking a distinctly bearish close for the week. Today, with the opening of trading, the weekly short-term trend (1.0864) has moved closer to the monthly medium-term trend (1.0901), thereby strengthening the zone of attraction in this area. This may now cause a slowdown, a pause in movement, or even a recovery of bullish positions. Meanwhile, the exit of the weekly short-term trend from the previous positions weakened the support zone, which is next on the path of development of bearish sentiments and consists of the daily cloud (1.0814 – 1.0775) and the monthly level (1.0763).

H4 - H1

At the moment, on the lower timeframes, the advantage is on the side of the bears. The bearish trend is developing with intraday targets at 1.0819 – 1.0790 – 1.0731 (supports of the classic pivot points). If a developing correction takes place, the key resistances are now at 1.0878 (central pivot point of the day) and 1.0949 (weekly long-term trend), with an intermediate resistance at R1 (1.0907). A consolidation above 1.0949 and a reversal of the moving average will change the current balance of power on the lower timeframes.

GBP/USD

Higher timeframes

Last week, a new peak did not allow bulls to continue strengthening their positions. At the end of the week, the bears managed to close it below the daily golden cross of Ichimoku (1.2471 is the final level). At the moment, the development of bearish sentiments in this area is complicated by the presence of a large number of supports, located at a small distance from each other, thereby forming a fairly wide support zone (1.2421 – 1.2335 – 1.2302 – 1.2281 – 1.2226 – 1.2163 – 1.2122 – 1.2052). In the current situation, for bulls to regain the upward trend, it is necessary to recover above the supports of the daily cross (1.2471 – 1.2510 – 1.2561) and to update the high of the past week (1.2678).

H4 - H1

The bears currently have the main advantage on the lower timeframes. Their target benchmarks for the continuation of the decline today can be marked at 1.2412 – 1.2381 – 1.2317 (supports of the classic pivot points) and 1.2392–60 (target for the breakout of the H4 cloud). For a more complete picture of what is happening, I will note that at the moment, an upward correction is emerging, and the pair is testing the resistance of the central pivot point of the day (1.2476). The next is the R1 line of the classic pivot points (1.2507), but the main resistance, in case of a correction, is the weekly long-term trend (1.2572). Conquering this level coincides with the return of the daily cross of Ichimoku to the bull's side on the higher timeframes, strengthening the importance of the current correction.

The technical analysis of the situation uses:

Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

Lower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)