FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/05/2023

As predicted, inflation in the United States has decreased from 5.0% to 4.9%. However, the scale of the dollar's weakening turned out to be modestly small. Investors were puzzled by the monthly data. As consumer prices rose by 0.4% in a month, against a forecast of 0.3%, which somewhat hints at the possibility of maintaining inflation at a relatively high level for a long time. And this already excludes the possibility of lowering the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate by the end of this year, which many investors are strongly counting on.

Inflation (United States):

Today, the focus is on the Bank of England's board meeting. Not only is everyone talking about a 25 bps hike, but there is also a strong push for the idea that this will be the last interest rate hike. Afterwards, the BoE will take a break. However, inflation in the UK is growing, not decreasing like in the United States or the European Union. So there's still a likelihood of a rise by as much as 50 bps. If this happens, the pound's growth will be quite impressive. But with an increase of 25 bps, the situation in the market will not change, as this decision is already accounted for by the market.

Refinancing Rate (United Kingdom):

The GBP/USD pair locally renewed the high of the medium-term trend due to market speculation. The bulls' joy was short-lived, since a pullback followed. As a result, the trading day ended at the opening level.

On the four-hour charts, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the bullish sentiment.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the current upward cycle.

Outlook

Due to the upcoming event, which is the Bank of England meeting, new speculations are not ruled out during the announcement of its results. From a technical perspective, for the subsequent growth in the volume of long positions, it is necessary to stay above the value of 1.2650 in the four-hour period. This step will prolong the medium-term trend. As for the bearish scenario, it is possible if the price stays below the 1.2600 mark, which may strengthen short positions towards the 1.2550 level.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, technical indicators are pointing to alternate signals due to recent price jumps. In the medium term, the indicators are reflecting an upward cycle.