FX.co ★ How to trade EUR/USD on April 28. Simple trading tips and analysis for beginners

Analyzing Thursday's trades:

EUR/USD on 30M chart

The EUR/USD pair traded lower on Thursday (as I expected). Recall that in recent articles, I've already mentioned that it is quite simple to assess the movement - you need to choose the least likely scenario for the development of events, and it will be the correct one. On Thursday, the only important report of the day was the US GDP report for the fourth quarter. We did not expect a strong reaction to this report, and there wasn't one, as a 40-point downward move cannot be considered a strong reaction. Moreover, the GDP value for the fourth quarter was significantly lower than forecasts, so it should have triggered a drop in the US currency. But of course, we saw its growth. Thus, there is still no logic in the pair's movements, and in regards to macro data, you can pay attention to the publication time, because how the market will react to it is purely random.

EUR/USD on 5M chart

On the 5-minute chart, a sufficient number of trading signals were formed on Thursday, but it wasn't the best movement. The pair was traded lower, but often rolled back up, so trading was quite inconvenient. The first two buy signals already showed that we shouldn't expect a good trading day. Both rebounds from the 1.1038 level turned out to be false, and the price in neither the first nor the second case could even go up 15 points. Therefore, only one long position should have been opened, and it should have been closed manually before the release of the GDP report. The next signal we could use was formed when bouncing off the 1.0980 level, and beginners could earn about 10 points from it. In general, the day ended with plus-minus zero profit.

Trading tips on Friday:

On the 30-minute chart, the pair has left the flat and is slowly moving upward. I have already mentioned several times that the upward movement has no basis, and I'm sticking to that opinion. However, now the pair is neither growing nor falling; the movements are absolutely illogical, random. The pair can stand still for a week and then show "swings" with an empty fundamental and macroeconomic background. On the 5-minute chart, consider levels 1.0792, 1.0857-1.0867, 1.0920-1.0933, 1.0980-1.1000, 1.1038, 1.1070, 1.1132, 1.1184, 1.1228. As soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Friday, the only important report of the day will be the EU GDP for the first quarter in the first estimate. It is expected to be 0.1-0.2%, but the market can react to this data in any way. Do not expect a logical reaction.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.

2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.

3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.

4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.

5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.