FX.co ★ PlanB and its "Stock-to-Flow" model

Bitcoin has risen to the $29,750 mark, as we predicted. Over the past week, it has been diligently trying to avoid a decline or correction, which it has, in principle, managed to do. Today, the cryptocurrency is trying to go below the $29,750 level, but it still feels the support of the 100.0% Fibonacci level and the Senkou Span B line on the 4-hour chart. Thus, bears can't oppose the bulls yet, but we want to note that the last upward surge was quite weak, which may signal an approaching correction. Until it consolidates below the $29,750 level, we still expect the world's first cryptocurrency to grow with $34,267 as the target.

It's been a long time since we've heard from the well-known crypto analyst PlanB. He became famous thanks to his forecasting model called "Stock-to-Flow", which caused a sensation in the crypto community a few years ago. In fact, this model cannot be considered even better than the Ichimoku indicator because it is just as prone to errors from time to time, like other systems and indicators. Since the "Stock-to-Flow" forecasting model is long-term, that is for a year or two or three years ahead, you might as well rely on the advice of senior citizens, because Bitcoin has been growing for 15 years, its whole history of existence. Recall that in 2021, when Bitcoin was at its all-time highs, PlanB said it would rise to $100,000 within a month. Then it became within three months, and then "next year". Basically, none of these forecasts came true.

Now we are given a new deadline for achieving the $100,000 goal. PlanB asserts that the breakthrough of the $100,000 level will happen in 2025 after the halving. The analyst is confident that the market bottom has passed, and Bitcoin will not fall below $15,500. Throughout 2023, he expects Bitcoin to rise to $60,000. It is difficult for us to say how realistic this forecast is, as the figure of $100,000 has become magical for all experts and forecasters in recent years. One constantly wants to ask, why exactly $100,000, and not $90,000 or $120,000?

On the 24-hour view, Bitcoin continues to be above the critical level of $29,750, so traders can remain in long positions with $34,267 as the target. There are no signs of a brewing correction yet. Consolidating below the $29,750 level would be a signal to sell and initiate a correction. You can also sell Bitcoin when this signal is formed, but the trend is currently bullish, and a significant drop in Bitcoin is not expected since there is an uptrend line.