FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on April 10, 2023

The US March jobs report turned out to be good. 236,000 new jobs were created in the non-farm sector, and job additions for February were revised up from 311,000 to 326,000. The share of the economically active population increased from 62.5% to 62.6%. Unemployment decreased from 3.6% to 3.5%.

As a result, the probability (according to futures) of a 0.25% rate hike in May sharply increased from 49.6% to 65.5%. The euro fell 19 pips for the day and touched the support of the MACD indicator line with its lower shadow, setting a task for the following days: to cross 1.0877 and fall to 1.0758/87. The Marlin oscillator finally chose to fall.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled below the MACD indicator line. Marlin is in a downtrend. I expect the price to fall below the signal level of 1.0877. The main scenario can be disrupted if the price exceeds the peak of April 5th at 1.0938. In this case, the bulls may try to reach the target level of 1.1033 again.