FX.co ★ Usd/CAD H1 analysis for August 16, 2013

General overview for 16/08/2013 08:30 CET:

Due to a lack of impulsive bullish wave progression the count has been changed, making wave Y more complex and time consuming structure.

There are two scenarios here:

SCENARIO 1: MAIN COUNT - Last impulsive wave to the downside is needed to finish the cycle. According to this count it might be extended wave v. Break of 1.0323 will invalidate this count and put alternate count into play.

SCENARIO 2: ALTERNATE COUNT - This overlaping wave structire might be still a part of wave iv complex correction, i.e. in a shape of a Triangle. Break of 1.0323 will confirm this outlook.

From technical point of view the price is reacting to both golden and brown trend line and sooner or later the breakout in either direction will happen. Immediate intraday bias is to the downside due to a lack of impulsive wave v to finish the cycle but higher time frame cycles are still more bullish than bearish.

Support/Resistance:

1.0273 - Swing Low

1.0283 - 1.0291 - Intraday Demand Zone | Golden Trend Line Support |

1.0323 - Invalidation Line of immediate bearish count

1.0327 - Weekly Pivot

1.0346 - Technical Resistance

1.0368 - Intraday High | Intraday Supply Zone |

1.0380 - WR1

1.0401 - Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

1.0436 - 1.0445 - SUPPY ZONE | Swing High

Trading Recommendations:

Any price below 1.0323 should be sold with tight SL and potential TP at 1.0273 level or even below.

In case of 1.0323 level is broken, long positions should be in play with tight SL and potential TP at 1.0346 or even 1.0368.

Beware of whipsaws!