FX.co ★ EUR/USD: trading plan for the American session on April 3 (analysis of morning deals). The euro regains its position

I highlighted the 1.0830 level in my morning forecast and advocated making market entry selections. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to determine what transpired there. A break and a retest of this level generated a buy signal for the euro, culminating in an upward movement of more than 40 points. Sales based on a false breakout near 1.0872 have yet to produce results, and they probably won't. In the afternoon, there has been a shift in the technical situation.

To initiate long positions on the EUR/USD, you must:

Buyers of euros completely disregarded the reported data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone, which decreased despite being better than economists' projections and continued to drive the pair higher despite everything. After that, it is still being determined whether similar data for the United States can be relied upon. In the near future, the euro may continue to appreciate as we await a report on the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. If the market's response to the data, whatever it may be, is unfavorable, then you should pay special attention to the level of 1.0839. Only the development of a false breakout there will signal the opening of long positions with an upward movement to the area where the new resistance of 1.0893 was formed on Friday. A breakout and a top-down test of this level would provide an extra entry opportunity for establishing long positions with a profit target of 1.0927. The area around 1.0975 remains the farthest objective, but I need more hope for its attainment. If EUR/USD decreases and there are no buyers at 1.0839 in the afternoon, which is the more likely scenario, the pressure on the euro will increase, and we will witness a decline to 1.0792. Only the emergence of a false breakout will serve as an indication to purchase the euro. I will open long positions immediately for a rebound from the day's low of 1.0748, or even lower – around 1.0716 – with a 30-point-plus intraday correction target.

To establish short positions on the EUR/USD, you must:

There were no euro sellers on Friday, but the decline was due to long positions being closed and profit-taking. Today's vigorous response from euro buyers, for which there was no apparent cause, may result in a test of 1.0893, the closest resistance level. The ideal situation for creating new short positions is the development of a false collapse at this level, which can only occur following the release of negative economic data for the United States. This will cause the pair to fall to its nearest support level of 1.0839. The breakdown and reverse test of this range will be a cold shower for the bulls, pushing the pair to a low of 1.0792. Consolidation below this area will also open the door to 1.0748, correcting the downside. I will fix the profit there. In the event of an upward advance of EUR/USD throughout the American session and the lack of bears at 1.0893, which is a plausible scenario given that the euro was purchased in the morning, I recommend delaying short positions until 1.0927. Selling is permitted only after a failed consolidation. I will open short trades immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.0975 with the target of a 30-35 point downward correction.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 21 revealed a decline in both long and short holdings. The March meeting of the Federal Reserve System made some modifications to the market. Still, given that the committee has yet to alter its objective or policy, it is doubtful that the dollar will drop much versus the euro. The only thing helping the euro right now is that the European Central Bank continues raising interest rates aggressively and won't change course. According to the COT data, long non-commercial positions decreased by 6,488 to 215,825, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 11,374 to 70,983. The total non-commercial net position climbed from 139,956 to 144,842 toward the conclusion of the week. The weekly ending price rose from 1.0803 to 1.0821.

Signals of indicators

Moving Averages

The fact that trading occurs between the 30- and 50-day moving averages demonstrate the lateral nature of the market.

The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the standard definition of daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The indicator's upper limit at 1.0885 will act as resistance in an upward trend.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.