FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on April 3, 2023

Friday's inflation reports in the U.S. and Europe sobered market participants. The eurozone core CPI for March jumped by 1.2% against expectations of 0.6%, while year-on-year rose to 5.7% from the previous 5.6% y/y. The year-on-year overall CPI fell to 6.9% from 8.5% y/y previously, but the monthly index rose 0.9%, suggesting a sharp rise in year-on-year inflation as early as next month. The U.S. personal income report showed an increase of 0.3% in February, spending rose 0.2%, and the Chicago region's business activity rose to 43.8 points in March from February's 43.6.

As a result, the euro was down 64 points. The price reversed from the benchmark peak level on March 23, failing to form a bullish signal to 1.0990. The price was under the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator turned down decisively. Now the euro has another target, the range of 1.0758/87. After overcoming the range, further downward movement to the target level of 1.0660 is expected. The bearish perspective is the 1.0443/70 range, which is the lower limit of the descending green price channel. Due to the sharp price reversal, this channel persists with a slight upgrade.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of oscillator Marlin has penetrated into negative territory, the price has crossed the support of the MACD line through consolidation. I'm waiting to see if the pair will trade lower.