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FX.co ★ Technical analysis on GBP/USD for September 13, 2023

Technical analysis on GBP/USD for September 13, 2023

Technical analysis on GBP/USD for September 13, 2023

Overview :

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.2377 today. So, the support is found at the level of 1.2377, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 1.2377.

The current price is set at the level of 1.2423 that acts as a daily pivot point seen at 1.2434. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between 1.2495 and 1.2377.

This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.2377 providing a clear signal to buy with the target seen at 1.2460.

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If the trend breaks the resistance at 1.2460 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2495 in order to test the daily resistance 2. In the same time frame, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2495 and 1.2500.

The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.2326 (below the support 2).

Remember:

- Sell: If the last range was medium, your profit will probably reach S1, double bottom and S2.

- Buy: If the last range was medium, your profit will probably reach R1, double top and R2. So, we expect new range will be around 200 - 399 pips next week.

Because the the previous range was less than 200 pips. Thus, probably, the trend will hit the weekly pivot point, support 1 and/or support 2, or resistance 1 and/or resistance 2. Because the support 3 and resistance 3 are located far than open price today.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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USD declares war on EUR

What's new is often just what's been forgotten. As spring draws to a close, the long-dismissed mantra "sell America" is making a comeback in markets. The phrase gained traction following Donald Trump's sweeping tariff actions in early April, which heightened fears of a potential US recession. Today, the United States faces a different challenge—fiscal. And the dollar is no longer a safe-haven currency that automatically rallies in times of stress. Still, the US president's threats towards the European Union are clipping the wings of the EUR/USD pair.

If US federal debt does indeed climb to 134% of GDP over the next decade, as projected by Moody's, investors are justified in demanding higher compensation for risk. The so-called term premium in the US bond market has surged to its highest level since 2014. This underscores the depth of market discomfort with the Republican tax-cut proposal.

Chart: US Treasury Term Premium Trend

 USD declares war on EUR

Fiscal troubles are eroding confidence in the US dollar. According to Deutsche Bank, America's fiscal woes pose a greater threat to the greenback than to Treasury bonds. Domestic buyers will likely continue absorbing government debt, but foreign reluctance to do the same could be yet another nail in the coffin for the US dollar index.

The White House, however, has its own agenda. Without waiting for the weekend—so as not to rattle equity markets—Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the European Union. He argued that current talks between Washington and Brussels are going nowhere, that negotiating with Europe is difficult, and that it's time they "got moving." If not, higher import duties will take effect starting June 1.

Markets are now bracing for a new trade war. While the US reached an understanding with China relatively quickly, doing the same with the EU could prove more challenging. Brussels is preparing countermeasures, and tit-for-tat tariffs are likely to harm both the American and European economies. Business activity in the eurozone is already flashing warning signs, so what happens when 50% tariffs hit?

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The only potential lifeline appears to be continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank. A sharp slowdown in average wages, which are now at their lowest since late 2021, suggests that the Governing Council has plenty of room to cut interest rates.

Chart: Eurozone Average Wage Growth Trend

 USD declares war on EUR

 USD declares war on EUR

Thus, while fiscal challenges weigh on the US dollar, the inability of the US and the European Union to swiftly reach a compromise is a clear negative factor for the euro, driven by fears of losing a trade war. This balance of risks further heightens the chances of consolidation in the EUR/USD pair.

Technically, the daily chart shows a battle unfolding around fair value, located near the 1.134 mark. A win for the bulls would allow them to expand long positions built during the euro's dip below $1.13. Conversely, if bears maintain control of this key level, investors will have to wait for a deeper pullback in EUR/USD to initiate new long positions.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade
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M5M15M30H1H4D1W1
Created with Highcharts 8.0.4EURUSD20. May08:0016:0021. May08:0016:0022. May08:0016:0023. May08:0016:001.121.12251.1251.12751.131.13251.1351.1375
EURUSD1.1364+0.0082+0.72%
GBPUSD1.3536+0.0117+0.86%
USDJPY142.56-1.30-0.91%
USDCHF0.8208-0.0074-0.90%
USDCAD1.3732+0.0004+0.03%
AUDUSD0.6498+0.0086+1.32%
NZDUSD0.5980+0.0003+0.05%
EURJPY161.95+0.02+0.01%
EURCHF0.9329-0.0001-0.01%
EURGBP0.8393+0.0002+0.02%
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