FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 16/03/2023

There is a saying in the Western Hemisphere - when the United States sneezes, Latin America gets the flu. This is a long outdated joke, and Latin America should be replaced with the rest of the world. If there were any doubts about this, they were dispelled by the situation with Credit Suisse. Although the bank has not yet declared bankruptcy, European monetary authorities are already pouring money into it in a panic. This is an interesting development to the banking crisis that started a week ago. But while two banks in the United States have gone bankrupt, a U.S. journalist joked about how sad it was to learn about a bank only from reports of its bankruptcy, the Swiss bank is among the world's largest financial institutions. Talks about the bank's problems already emerged as early as Tuesday night, but the market did not react. Yesterday afternoon, we found out that Credit Suisse can not meet its obligations due to lack of liquidity.

Afterwards, the euro collapsed by two hundred points, and the pound followed. Although, sterling's decline was a bit more modest. At the same time, there were talks that today the European Central Bank will raise the rate not by fifty, but only by twenty five basis points. But in fact, it's not that important. What matters is the subsequent comments from the Bank. If ECB President Christine Lagarde stresses the sustainability of the banking system, it will signal the start of a sharp reversal in her approach to monetary policy. And also a warning that the European economy is really struggling.

During the downward movement, GBP/USD returned to 1.2000, where the volume of short positions had decreased. This movement was caused by the EURUSD pair, which collapsed by 200 pips over a similar period of time. As a result, through positive correlation, it pulled the pound with it.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator crossed the 50 midline downwards during the bearish momentum. The subsequent movement indicates stagnation within the midpoint, which coincides with the support level of 1.2000.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined with each other, indicating that the upward cycle has slowed due to the recent correction. However, the MA lines on the daily chart indicate a possible move into an uptrend cycle.

Outlook

We can assume that the bullish sentiment still has a place in the market. A bounce from the psychological level in theory may result in bringing back long positions on the pound. The main technical signal for growth will arise once the price climbs above 1.2150.

Market participants will consider the bearish scenario if the price stays below 1.1950 on the daily chart. In this case, there is a high probability of updating the local low of the downward momentum.

The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term, technical indicators are pointing to bullish sentiment since the price recently bounced from 1.2000. In the intraday period, indicators are focused on the downward momentum, this is a residual signal.