FX.co ★ Trading Signal for EUR/USD for September 1-4, 2023: buy above 1.0830 and sell below 1.0917 (2/8 Murray - 200 EMA)

EUR/USD found support around 1.0830. This level coincides with 61.8% (traced from the low of 1.0764 and the high of 1.0944). Early in the American session, we may see a consolidation of the euro ahead of the nonfarm payrolls which could give it a strong boost and EUR/USD could rally to the top of the downtrend channel around 1.0917.

In case there is a pullback towards the 200 EMA (1.0917), it could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling because the eagle indicator has been giving an overbought signal since August 29. So, we will have an opportunity to sell.

In case the nonfarm payrolls data is negative for the US dollar, we could expect a strong technical rebound in the euro and EUR/USD could break 2/8 Murray and consolidate above 1.0866, which will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets from 1.0917 to 1.0944.

Conversely, in case the euro fails to consolidate above the 2/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA located at 1.0865, then it could be seen as a signal to sell below this area. The euro could fall towards the 1/8 Murray support level at 1.0803 and to the low of August 25 around 1.0764.

On the condition of a daily close of EUR/USD above the 200 EMA and above the 1.0945 weekly high, the euro could change the trend and produce a bullish medium-term sign. If this scenario occurs, the euro could reach the psychological barrier at 1.1000 and a one-month high recorded at 1.1064 on August 10.

In case the bearish pressure accelerates, the key will be to sell below 1.0917 and below 1.0866 with the target at 1.0764.

Our trading plan is to buy the euro above the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 1.0830 with the target at 1.0866 and the 23% Fibonacci level around 1.0900. Finally, we could sell if the euro falls below 1.0866.