FX.co ★ GBP/USD. Analysis for March 6, 2023

The wave pattern for the dollar pair now appears to be challenging, but it does not call for any clarifications. The wave patterns for the euro and the pound differ somewhat, but both point to a decrease. Our five-wave upward trend part has the pattern a-b-c-d-e and is most likely already finished. I predict that the downward part of the trend has begun and will continue to develop, taking at least a three-wave shape. Although Wave B appeared to be unnecessarily prolonged, it did not cancel. So, it is now anticipated that a wave has started to form with a downward trend section, the targets of which are situated below wave a's low. The price would be at least 300–400 points less than it is at the moment. Although it's too soon to speculate, I believe wave c may end up being deeper and that the entire downward part of the trend may potentially adopt a five-wave pattern. For a very long time, the pair has been on the verge of starting up again with the creation of an upward trend section. Since wave c has not yet finished, the low of the assumed wave a has not yet been broken.

On Friday, the Pound/Dollar exchange rate increased by 100 basis points. I don't think that such a sharp increase in quotes is appropriate given the news context from Friday. Only the UK and the USA's business activity indices for the service sector could be studied by the market. The American index did well, but demand for British currency increased all day. The British index, which likewise turned out to be strong, coincided exactly with the American one for some unknown reason. I think the pair's movements on Friday may have changed.

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also delivered a speech. He rarely speaks, but when he does, his points are always made clearly and concisely. This time, he claimed that no final decision on the interest rate had been made by the regulator. There is no "peak" value, no cause to believe that the Bank of England will stop raising interest rates soon, and no indication that this cycle of rate increases has come to an end. The Bank of England's target, according to Bailey, is stability at this rate over the long term, not a 2% rate cut. However, he stated that the state of the economy is satisfactory and that, given the tightening of monetary policy, people should exercise greater caution because of the potential negative effects on the economy. At the same time, Bailey thinks that the excessively pessimistic stance of the Bank of England will now force the necessity to raise the rate significantly further in the future. Balance is crucial. There is still a lack of qualified workers in the UK labor market, which drives up wages and further accelerates inflation. The Bank of England Governor's comments, in my opinion, should be taken with a large grain of salt. These words could cause the British to lose demand, which is exactly what is required right now to prevent the wave marker from being broken.

Conclusions in general.

The development of a downward trend section is implied by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar pair. Currently, it is conceivable to think of sales with targets near the level of 1,1508, which corresponds to 50.0% of the Fibonacci sequence. The peaks of waves e and b could be used to place a Stop Loss order. Wave c might be shorter in duration, but for the time being, I anticipate a minimum 300–400 point decline (from current levels).

The image resembles that of the euro/dollar pair at higher wave scales, but there are still minor distinctions. The upward correction part of the trend has now been completed. If this presumption is true, then we must wait for the development of a downward section to continue for at least three waves with the possibility of a decrease in the region of Figure 15. If this presumption is accurate, then we should be anticipating the continuation of the development of a downward section for at least three waves with the possibility of a decrease in the region of Figure 15.