FX.co ★ Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 17, 2023

Overview :

The British pound continues to rally against the US dollar. GBP/USD has risen to 1.3140, up 1.1%. The pound hit a two weeks high earlier today and is up 1.76% this week. The pound has continued to trend higher against the dollar on the back of the data in recent days, breaking through a big psychological barrier in the process.

The break of 1.2997 is a very bullish move after what has already been a strong couple of weeks for the currency. Today, the GBP/USD pair has broken resistance at the level of 1.2997 which acts as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.2997.

The strong support is seen at the level of 1.2997 because it represents the weekly support 1. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the two key central banks in Europe, have announced their intention to maintain a hawkish monetary policy.

The Bank of England's decision is primarily driven by the high inflation figures, which reached 8.7% year-on-year (consumer) and 5.1% year-on-year (core) based on May readings. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3078 in the H1 chart.

Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. Buy above the minor support of 1.3078 with the first target at 1.3078, and continue towards 1.3141 (the weekly resistance 1).

Consequently, the Bank of England authorities have no option but to consider raising interest rates significantly, potentially up to 6.5%.The situation in the eurozone appears slightly better, with consumer inflation at 5.5% year-on-year.

However, Christine Lagarde and other members of the Governing Council emphasize that there is still substantial work to be done to bring inflation down to the targeted level. According to the latest forecasts, it is expected that inflation will only reach the desired range in 2023.

On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 1.2997; hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2934 to test it again. Furthermore, the level of 1.2934 will form a double bottom.