FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD on January 20, 2023

The British pound has not yet succumbed to the pressure of the stock market. The U.S. S&P 500 was down 0.76% yesterday, and the British FTSE100 by 1.07%. Asian stocks are trading mixed this morning. UK retail sales data for December will be released today with forecast at 0.5% versus -0.4% in November. The overlap of the decline is 0.1%, which is good amid the collapse of US retail sales (-1.1%), only the pound's strength against the stock market pressure may be running out, so the data should still be better than the forecast for a strong growth.

From a technical point of view, the pressure on the price is also increasing - the Marlin oscillator shows the intention to turn down with the prospect of forming a divergence, and it hasn't crossed the linear resistance of 1.2410. There is a 60% probability of a reversal.

On the four-hour chart, the price slowed down before 1.2410, the Marlin oscillator follows the price, it does not show the prospects of development. As a consequence, fundamental factors are coming to the forefront. We're waiting for reports and monitoring the price's reaction to it. The first clear sign of the reversal will be the price crossing the MACD line, which is near the highs of the 1.2280 on August 1 and 10.