FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 11, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

According to a study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 93% of central banks are already exploring central bank digital currencies. By 2030, there may be up to 15 retail and 9 wholesale CBDCs in circulation.

The survey of 86 central banks published today was conducted between October and December 2022. Central banks were asked if they were working on retail, wholesale or both types of CBDC, how advanced the work was and what their motivations were.

According to the survey, more than half of the world's central banks are experimenting or working on a CBDC pilot program. Nearly a quarter of all central banks are already piloting their CBDC retail projects. The number of wholesale CBDCs in the works is much lower.

From a geoeconomic perspective, countries in emerging markets and developing economies are at the forefront of CBDC adoption. Their share in piloting retail (29%) and wholesale (16%) CBDCs is almost double that of developed economies, which is 18% and 10%, respectively.

Both developing and advanced economies mostly share the motivation behind their CBDC projects. It is financial stability and efficiency of cross-border payments. However, developing countries are more likely to be guided by considerations of financial innovation.

The share of central banks likely to issue retail CBDCs in the next three years has increased from 15% to 18% in 2022. At the same time, 68% of central banks still declare that they are not ready to issue a retail CBDC "in the near future".

So far, only four CBDCs are in circulation, i.e. in the Bahamas, Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Nigeria. However, based on the study, 15 retail and 9 wholesale CBDCs are projected to be operational by the end of this decade.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $31,514 and then pulled-back from the extremely overbought market conditions on the H4 and Daily time frame chart towards a narrow zone seen around $30k. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $29,729 and the intraday technical resistance is seen at $30,428. Moreover, the bulls had broken above the technical resistance located at $28,446 and now this level will work as the technical support and the line in sand for bulls. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of $32,350, but they need to wait for a fundamental event that would trigger more volatility. Until then, the whipsaw trading conditions are expected.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $30,664

WR2 - $30,370

WR1 - $30,236

Weekly Pivot - $30,076

WS1 - $29,943

WS2 - $29,788

WS3 - $29,490

Trading Outlook:

The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The last pull-back has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the market is ready to continue the up move. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.