FX.co ★ Outlook and trading signals for EUR/USD on December 21. COT report. Analysis of market situation. Total flat on the market.

M5 chart of EUR/USD

EUR/USD was tightly stuck between 1.0581 and 1.0658 on Tuesday. In addition, it is also located between the lines of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B and Kijun-Sen. Therefore, it's a total flat, which may persist for a few weeks. Recall that the key moment in the currency market now is how close we are to the Christmas and New Year holidays. Firstly, it affects the calendar of events, which is simply empty. Secondly, traders are slowly leaving the market in anticipation of the holidays. All this leads to a decline in volatility and absence of trend movement. Needless to say, there were no interesting events yesterday, neither in the US, nor in the EU... The Ichimoku lines may soon cease to be strong and important. This is their normal reaction to a flat.

Speaking of trading signals, I have to say that we were lucky again. The first buy signal near 1.0581 turned out to be strong and accurate. The price rebounded from it, and traders had to open long positions. By the middle of the US trading session, the price climbed up to the Kijun-Sen line, from which it also bounced. Here it was necessary to close the longs with about 55 points of profit and open new shorts. It was possible to get about 30 pips more profit on the short positions, as the pair went on to move down for the rest of the day.

COT report

In 2022, the COT reports for the euro are becoming more and more interesting. In the first part of the year, the reports were pointing to the bullish sentiment among professional traders. However, the euro was confidently losing value. Then, for several months, reports were reflecting bearish sentiment and the euro was also falling. Now the net position of non-commercial traders is again bullish and strengthens almost every week. The euro is growing but a fairly high value of the net position may point to the end of the upward movement or at least, to a correction. During the given period, non-commercial traders opened 8,600 long positions, whereas the number of short positions rose by 8,500. Thus, the net positions fell by 100. Notably, the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved far apart from each other, which may mean the end of the ascending trend (which wasn't actually an uptrend because the upward movement of the last two and a half months fits under the "correction" category against the global downtrend). The number of long positions is 125,000 higher than the number of sell positions opened by non-commercial traders. Thus, the net position of the non-commercial group may continue to grow. However, the euro may remain unchanged. The overall number of short orders exceeds the number of long orders by 33,000 (711,000 vs. 678,000).

H1 chart of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is still in a high position on the one-hour chart, although it has hardly settled below the critical line. So far, we're not sure whether it will continue to move down since there's already signs that the market is flat. Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may soon merge with each other and lose all meaning. We should now rely on the 1.0581-1.0658 horizontal channel. On Wednesday, the pair may trade at the following levels: 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0581, 1.0658, 1.0736, 1.0806, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0589) and Kijun Sen (1.0656). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but signals are not formed near these levels. Bounces and breakouts of the extreme levels and lines could act as signals. Don't forget about stop-loss orders, if the price covers 15 pips in the right direction. This will prevent you from losses in case of a false signal. There are no important reports or events scheduled for today in the EU and the US. And the pattern will remain the same all throughout this week. So far, all this leads to a flat...

What we see on the trading charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They do not provide trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the one-hour chart from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts reflects the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts reflects the net position size for the non-commercial group.