FX.co ★ GBP/USD. Overview for November 23, 2022

Given the volume of the fundamental and macroeconomic background we currently have, the GBP/USD currency pair again displayed zero movements on Tuesday. Hint: there aren't any. Thus, it is understandable that volatility has decreased (though not to a "zero" value) and that trend movement, which is already evident on the 4-hour TF, has stopped. What should I do in this circumstance? Waiting is the easiest and most commonplace thing to do. Watch for new information, news, and events. Without them, the pair may trade sideways for several weeks, which is never good for traders. Currently, it remains above the moving average (unlike the euro). Still, we can see that two buy signals (rebounds from the moving average) did not succeed, preventing the pair from continuing its upward trend. So, we already have a flat; the only remaining question is how long it will take. In general, the pair has always traded trendily and with great volatility, especially in recent months. Therefore, no one should be surprised that the flat has started. Any movement must include a flat component.

At least until the end of the week, we can continue to watch unremarkable movements that are very challenging to understand because nothing significant or important is planned. Trading on a lower TF is still possible, but issues might arise if the pair breaches the same level ten times in ten to twelve hours. The pound sterling cannot continue to increase because we do not see any justification for doing so. It is very challenging to explain why the pound has increased significantly over the past few weeks from the standpoint of the "foundation," macroeconomics, or geopolitics. As a result, we are still waiting for a strong downward correction.

Scotland's decision to leave the UK has yet to be changed.

We have forgotten about the issues that are now "time bombs" despite all the recent political turmoil in Britain. Remember that Edinburgh would still like to leave London's jurisdiction and rejoin the EU if Brexit could be resolved and completed. However, one valid concern arises in light of all the assertions made by Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, over the past few years: Can the current administration even obtain permission to hold a new independence referendum? Or, can the current administration force this referendum without London's approval so that its outcomes will be upheld in court afterward? All that is currently visible are Sturgeon's requests for authorization to hold a referendum and London's blatant denials in response. What else has Nicola got to offer the Scots? Or does she believe that "rolling, not washing," will solve the issue?

The most recent remarks made by Sturgeon were directed at the newly elected British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. She claimed that a new Prime Minister, who was not once more chosen by the Scots, now governs the Kingdom. Additionally, Sturgeon urged Sunak to avoid enacting austerity measures because the Scottish civil service will not comply with them and to hold early elections (obviously for the Parliament). In theory, Sunak urged Keir Starmer, the head of the Labor Party, to call for a general election. He claimed that Sunak was chosen by the Conservatives, not by the people of Britain. A new election would perfectly reflect how the British feel about the current administration because so much has changed since the last time they chose their representatives in Parliament. However, Sunak did not consent to early elections because he and his party wanted to retain their current majority. Furthermore, the majority would have been lost without a doubt. In the event of elections, Sunak's most recent proposals to cut government spending and subsidies and raise taxes would stir up a storm of emotions among the electorate, and fewer people would unquestionably vote for the Conservatives than in 2019. We should also remember Sturgeon's pledge to hold an independence referendum before October 19, 2023. There is little time left.

Over the previous five trading days, the GBP/USD pair has experienced an average volatility of 121 points. This value is "high" for the dollar/pound exchange rate. Thus, on November 23, we anticipate channel movement that is constrained by the levels of 1.1740 and 1.1984. A new round of downward movement is indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator turning downward.

Nearest levels of support

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest levels of resistance:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading Suggestions:

In the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair attempts to maintain its upward trend. To avoid the Heiken Ashi indicator turning down at this time, buy orders with targets of 1.1963 and 1.1984 should still be considered. With targets of 1.1740 and 1.1597, open sell orders should be fixed below the moving average.

Explanations of the illustrations:

Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.

Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) – the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.