Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair did not show any interesting movement on Friday either. We were watching "fences" with "herringbones" all day. The pound collapsed quite significantly on Thursday, but overall this week it traded more sideways than up or down. The UK published a report on retail sales, but even by the very movement of the pair on that day, it is clear that the reaction to it, if any, was minimal. And there was no trend at all, so it was extremely difficult to trade. Nevertheless, the ascending trend line remains relevant, and the technical pictures for both major currency pairs are almost identical. The euro and the pound retain the likelihood of growth, but now they need new reasons for this. The market, of course, can continue to buy on the basis of "technique", but it cannot constantly trade only in this mode! The current week has clearly not helped us answer the question: will the dollar continue to fall in the medium term?
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The situation for trading signals on the 5-minute chart were better for the pound than the euro. The pair was moving sideways all day, but there were only three buy signals, two of which had a margin of error by a few pips. Anyway, no matter which signal traders tried to use, they still did not lose anything, because the price was 20 pips up in all cases. This means that Stop Losses should have been placed at breakeven. It was possible to get profit on the second trade, as the price had almost reached the target level of 1.1957, but only in case the position was manually closed.
How to trade on Monday:
The pound/dollar pair continues its upward movement on the 30-minute chart, which is still supported by the uptrend line. Although we still do not see a good reason for the pound to rise, the market continues to hold it quite high. Therefore, at this time we still have an upward trend, but in the new week we will again expect a serious downtrend correction. Tomorrow, we advise you to trade at 1.1550, 1.1608, 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1793, 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1967, 1.1994, 1.2079 on the 5-minute chart. If after opening a position in the right direction the price passes 20 pips, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no important events planned on Monday in the UK and the US, so there will be nothing for traders to react to. The pair may continue trading about the same as this week.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.