FX.co ★ How to trade EUR/USD on November 18? Simple tips for beginners.

Analysis of Thursday's deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair was trading with a slight downward bias on Thursday, just like on Wednesday. We obviously did not count on such a strong correction. The ascending trend line is still relevant, and the price is well above it. Therefore, from a technical point of view, quotes can rise at almost any moment. From a macroeconomic point of view, there is practically nothing to analyze this week. In the European Union, inflation for October was released in the second assessment. But this second valuation was only 0.1% different from the first valuation, which the market had worked out long ago. Therefore, there was no response to this report. Retail sales and industrial production were released in the US, which in themselves are not extremely significant. In addition, one of them turned out to be worse than forecasts, and the second one was better, so they simply offset each other. We repeat: we believe that the pair's growth in the last two weeks is illogical and we are waiting for a more powerful downward correction.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

The pair's movement on the 5-minute chart was just terrible, despite the downward bias. It's not even about the levels near which the signals were formed, the fact is that the euro could not decide which way to move during the European trading session, and the total volatility of the day was 100 points, which seems to be quite a lot, but Thursday's movement can hardly be called a trend even within the day. The first buy signal turned out to be false, and even Stop Loss could not be placed at breakeven. The long position was closed at a loss. The second sell signal was formed when the price was already near the next level of 1.0354. The rebound from the level of 1.0354 is the same. It was possible to work out the fourth, fifth and sixth signals, which spoke about the same thing - about a possible fall in quotes. After each of them, the pair went down 15, 26 and 37 points. Therefore, there could no longer be a loss on these transactions (Stop Loss at breakeven when passing 15 points in the right direction), but novice traders also hardly managed to make money. Therefore, the day ended, most likely, in a small loss. There is nothing wrong with this, since the newcomers managed to make good money on the upward rally of the euro earlier.

How to trade on Friday:

The pair maintains an upward trend and is quite far from the trend line on the 30-minute chart. We still expect a serious correction, but it will be possible to speak about a downward trend when the pair overcomes the ascending trend line. On the 5-minute TF it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0354, 1.0383, 1.0433, 1.0465, 1.0483. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. European Central bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech in the European Union. The calendar of macroeconomic events is empty in America. However, Lagarde's speech may be enough for traders to start trading more in a trend. Everything will depend on what Lagarde says.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.