FX.co ★ Oil is trying to recover after the collapse, but the momentum for growth is weak

Oil is trying to recover after a week of depression. Throughout the past week, including on Friday, oil quotes could not find a good reason to hold positions and declined. Thus, the benchmark Brent crude oil did not stay near the level of $95 per barrel at the end of the week and sank below the $92 mark.

On Monday, oil prices were rising by about 1% at auction in Asia, which is facilitated by both the decline in the value of the dollar and the decline in bond yields.

The price of December Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange by 13:49 London time is $92.30 per barrel, which is 0.72% higher than the closing price of the previous session. Following the results of trading on Friday, these contracts fell by 3.1% to $91.63.

The price of WTI crude oil futures for November on the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by this time by 0.71%, to $85.25 per barrel. By the close of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by 3.9% to $85.61.

At the end of last week, Brent crude oil sank in price by a significant 6.4%, and WTI decreased by 7.6%.

The momentum for growth on the charts, which can be traced today, is likely to last for a short time. Still, we do not find any significant reasons for the rally in oil prices. The slight increase in quotes is explained by the fact that investors saw some profitable opportunities in the market after its sharp fall last week.

OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day since November has added a lot of optimism to the commodity market. However, this optimism lasted quite a bit and by Friday, apparently, it was completely offset.

Risks for the global economy are coming to the fore now. The growth of dollar rates in conditions of such high inflation will not be avoided. And the voices of investors and experts are increasingly being heard about the impending stagnation of the economies of developed countries.

As for the fears of the cancellation of oil supplies due to the ongoing military conflict of Russia on the territory of Ukraine, they are not yet obvious.

But the fears associated with a decrease in demand for energy resources in the world are gradually increasing. And this factor is likely to continue to put pressure on the entire oil market.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who spoke at the twentieth Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which opened on Sunday, made it clear that the country's authorities will continue a tough policy to curb the spread of COVID-19. The Chinese economy, due to constant restrictions on the movement of people, has already caused serious damage to the Chinese economy this year. And Xi Jinping's resolute intentions to continue fighting the coronavirus suggest that the market in China will not improve next year either. And since China is the main consumer of oil and petroleum products in the world, the country is unlikely to be able to support global demand, much less improve it.

Key statistics on China (data on GDP, industrial production and retail trade) will be released on Tuesday, thanks to which it will become clear where the Chinese economy is moving and how the constant blockages of public life have affected it. Today, China will present data on the trade balance, which is also extremely important for assessing oil consumption.