FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 9, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

Rising regulatory pressures, tax burdens and energy costs in countries like the United States and Kazakhstan are likely to trigger a new big migration of cryptocurrency miners, Russian analysts believe. In their opinion, as much as 18% of the global hashrate of the bitcoin network will be generated in Russia.

The Russian Federation has a chance to become one of the leaders in the mining market. At least this is the opinion of experts from Intelion Data Systems, the main Russian importer and distributor of equipment for mining digital assets.

Analysts believe that Russia may generate up to 18% of the bitcoin network hashrate in some time. In January 2022, it was only 4.7% (according to the calculations of the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance). How would such a large jump be generated? Of course, as a result of the migration of miners who today operate in Kazakhstan and the USA.

In the background, there are phenomena that can actually support Russia's pro-mining policy. New restrictions on access to cheap energy, rising electricity rates and the potential introduction of an excise duty on mined BTC - these are the ideas debated by politicians in Western countries. White House officials are considering the latter. As a result, mines from the United States, Canada, China and, above all, Kazakhstan may be transferred to Russia. In the case of the latter country, an exodus of even every second miner is forecast (which, by the way, would be a loss for the state budget).

If the above forecasts come true, Russia's share in the global bitcoin hashrate could increase to 18%. This means 3.95 GW of electricity consumption.

Timofey Semyonov, CEO of Intelion Data Systems, claims that "Russia has every opportunity to change the existing hierarchy of the global cryptocurrency mining market. The country has everything it needs to do this: low cost of electricity, spare capacity reserves, developed energy infrastructure in many regions.

Semyonov also noted the increased efforts of Russian companies to expand their operations, as well as the government's support for the industry. Legislators have not yet adopted the long-awaited Mining Act. However, official statements from Moscow politicians indicate that the Russian elites intend to take advantage of what President Putin described as Russia's "competitive advantages" in the field of bitcoin mining.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has failed to break through the key technical resistance located at $2,049 and only a sustained breakout above this resistance level would open the road towards the swing high seen at $2,140. The market reversed sharply from the level of $2,019 and now is trading below the 50 and 100 MA on the H4 time frame chart. The next target for bears is seen at $1,807 and $1,787, just below the short-term trend line support. The weak and negative momentum on H4 time frame chart supports the short-term bearish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $2,016

WR2 - $1,941

WR1 - $1,902

Weekly Pivot - $1,871

WS1 - $1,829

WS2 - $1,798

WS3 - $1,726

Trading Outlook:

The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. This is the key level for bulls, so it needs to be broken in order to continue the up trend. The key technical support is seen at $1,368, so as long as the market trades above this level, the outlook remains bullish.