FX.co ★ Is Bitcoin waiting for the Fed meeting?

Bitcoin is trading inside the side channel of $18,500-$24,350. It has been inside this channel for more than three months, and we now have a paradoxical technical picture. On the one hand, we have a clear and unquestionable downward trend with a strong trend line. On the other hand, we have a side channel that does not cause questions and doubts. In the near future (if bitcoin remains inside the channel), the price may collide with the trend line and overcome it, but recall that crossing the trend line in flat conditions is not a buy signal. Even crossing the trend line will not mean the end of the flat. In this case, you will also need to wait for the price to leave the side channel. Thus, it is the lateral channel that is more important at this time. It is necessary to overcome the level of $ 18,500 in the near future to maintain the current downward trend.

Meanwhile, the market has calmly "digested" the US inflation report. Bitcoin, of course, fell, like many other risky assets and currencies, but in general, the report did not affect its technical picture in any way. The next important event is the Fed meeting. Enough has already been said about this meeting, so traders clearly understand what to expect from the American regulator. In any case, we are waiting for a new aggressive tightening of monetary policy. At least it will increase by 0.5% or 0.75%. Naturally, the reaction will differ in these cases, but the general fundamental background predicts a fall in the cryptocurrency market and bitcoin. Perhaps the market is waiting for this event to get the necessary push lower. We all see that Bitcoin has been trading at its annual lows for about three months. Many experts call the current price levels "attractive" and urge people to buy them. But if they were attractive, then bitcoin would have started to show growth long ago since there are "whales," there are institutions, and there is, after all, Microstrategy, which invests all available and borrowed funds in bitcoin. But bitcoin is not growing, so it is preparing for a new collapse.

In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350 but also failed to overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). So far, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time Bitcoin will spend in it. We recommend not rushing into open positions and withdrawals. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper or lower border of the channel).