FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 06/09/2022

Although a lot of macroeconomic data were published yesterday, they did not determine the course of trading. The central news of the day was Gazprom's decision to cut off gas supplies to Europe. As follows from the official statement, the cause is a breakdown, while it is not specified how long it will take to fix it. All this threatens Europe with shutdowns of enterprises and massive power outages. So it is not surprising that the single currency immediately collapsed by more than a hundred points. Then the situation on the markets stabilized somewhat, and there was a small rollback, the reason for which was precisely the macroeconomic statistics. Namely, retail sales in Europe, the rate of decline of which slowed down from -3.2% to -0.9%, with a forecast of -1.4%. It is clear that today the gas situation will remain the central theme that determines the course of events. Much will depend both on the statements of officials and the press service of Gazprom. If the company of course will make any statements. In any case, the single currency has no reasons for growth at the moment, and it will certainly not be able to rise above parity. Rather, on the contrary, some statements may contribute to another decline below 0.99, followed by a rebound.

Retail sales (Europe):

The EURUSD currency pair opened the new trading week with an intensive decline, during which the quote temporarily fell below 0.9900. Speculators failed to stay outside the control value, as a result of which a technical rollback occurred.

The RSI H4 and D1 technical instruments are moving almost all the time in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates a downward trend among traders in the market.

The moving MA lines on Alligator H4 and D1 are directed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the main trend. It should be noted that in the four-hour period the indicator signal is unstable due to the variable range.

Expectations and prospects

Despite the speculative activity, the quote is still within the range of 0.9900/1.0050. Thus, traders are guided by the borders of the flat, working according to the method of breakdown or rebound from the given values.

Complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods have a variable signal due to the current flat. At the moment, there is a signal to buy due to a rollback from the lower border of 0.9900. Indicators in the medium term are focused on a downward trend.