FX.co ★ Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 30, 2022

The market seems to be starting to recover a little from Jerome Powell's speech on Friday as the dollar weakened somewhat. But in fact, the rebound is due to rumors that the European Central Bank may start raising interest rates a little more actively than previously thought. Against this background, the euro quickly returned to parity, pulling the pound with it.

Most likely, the market will hang around the current values for some time, waiting for some specifics regarding the further actions of the European regulator. Moreover, today's macroeconomic statistics are unlikely to move the market. Data on the lending market in the UK, although should be worse than a month earlier, still fit into the logic of an apparent slowdown in economic growth and a gradual slide into recession. That is, they will not show anything new. In particular, the number of approved mortgage loans may reach 62,900 against 63,726 in the previous month. Net consumer lending, which rose by £7.1 billion last month, may increase by £6.5 billion. In other words, there are signs of a slowdown, but the market continues to grow.

Net consumer lending (UK):

Something similar awaits the American statistics. The number of job openings should be reduced from 10.698 million to 10.5 million. However, the changes themselves are extremely insignificant. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed to signs of an overheated labor market, and in this case, the decrease in the number of job openings looks more like a positive thing. In addition, the real estate price index should decrease from 18.3% to 17.5%. It seems to indicate a further slowdown in inflation, which should force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its plans towards a less aggressive increase in interest rates. However, this indicator is rather indirect and does not directly affect inflation. Now, if there had not been a rebound yesterday, then these data could be the reason for it. Today, they will remain without much attention.

House Price Index (United States):

Thus, all the data published today are unlikely to be able to somehow move the market. Now everything depends solely on the European Central Bank.

The EURUSD currency pair has been moving within the deviation of the parity level for the second week in a row, while showing speculative activity. Presumably, the characteristic stagnation along the 1.0000 level will remain in the market for some time, where the value of 0.9900 serves as the lower deviation.

The GBPUSD currency pair, as a variable support, wins back the value of 1.1650, relative to which there was a pullback to the previously passed level of 1.1750. We can assume variable turbulence within 100 points, which combines two levels. This movement may well lead to an accumulation of trading forces, eventually leading to an outgoing momentum.