FX.co ★ How to trade EUR/USD on August 15? Simple tips for beginners.

Analysis of Friday's deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday, which began days earlier after the second rebound from the level of 1.0359. Let's remind novice traders that this week the euro rose strongly on Wednesday due to the US inflation report. After that, many have already prepared for the formation of a new upward trend, but the bulls' optimism faded away very quickly, and by the end of the week, the euro quotes were already about the same as they were before the release of the US inflation report. Thus, according to the results of the whole week, the euro grew by only a few tens of points. As for Friday, the fall began at night and it is unlikely that it was provoked by the macroeconomic data that were published during the day. A report on industrial production for June was released in the European Union, which turned out to be much better than forecasts (but, as we can see, the euro fell anyway), and the consumer sentiment index in the US, which rose slightly, but still remains at its lowest values for the whole observation history. Thus, now there is still no upward trend, no trend line or channel, no desire on the market's part to buy the euro, and so on. All this looks more like a banal and protracted technical correction, after which the euro will resume to fall in the long term.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

Friday's move was almost perfect again on the 5-minute timeframe. The pair moved smoothly and calmly all day and only in one direction. Unfortunately, it was not possible to catch the beginning of this movement, and the first and only signal was formed only at the US trading session. The pair overcame the area of 1.0269-1.0277, after which the newcomers could open short positions. However, the pair could not go far down, the deal had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, and the profit on it amounted to no more than 10 points. Thus, the day ended up not being the most successful, but it happens.

How to trade on Monday:

The pair finally left the horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe. This does not mean at all that a trend movement or an upward trend has now begun. The euro made a leap upwards, after which it deflated very quickly, and now we again very much doubt its ability to continue strengthening against the US currency. Fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds remain on the dollar's side. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0354, 1.0383, 1.0433, 1.0465. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. Neither the US nor the European Union is expected to release a single important event or report on Monday. Thus, tomorrow the pair may again be in calm movements of not too high volatility.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.