FX.co ★ EUR/USD. The euro bear trap

The EUR/USD pair remains sensitive to the release of inflation data today. Will there be a surge of interest in one direction or another, or will it remain trading in the current range for quite a long time? Payrolls, although they turned out to be far off from the forecast, failed to stir up traders of the EUR/USD pair.

In the coming sessions, only the dollar will do the weather in the pair, since the calendar of European data is very disappointing. EUR/USD is influenced by geopolitical factors, statistics from the United States and the Federal Reserve press conference. However, no major changes are expected. According to ING, the euro will continue to trade in the middle of the 1.0100-1.0300 range until the end of this year. There will be small bursts, but they will not break the range limits.

Even if an exit does happen, it is more likely to go down than up. The strongest CPI data, especially in detail, may change the forecast for US rates for September, which will put pressure on the quote. Meanwhile, a surprise downside inflation is likely to have traders betting on a less hawkish approach from the Federal Reserve next month.

Euro bulls are pulling like a magnet towards the August high of 1.0293. Pushing the euro beyond this value, bulls will return the upward dynamics for a short time. The exchange rate, under the most optimistic scenario for the euro, may be around 1.0386.

In general, you can't argue with the trend, a bearish view of the pair remains relevant. While EUR/USD is trading below 1.0913, there is no chance of a change in direction.

The picture is that the dollar will continue to receive support, and the euro, on the contrary, will be bombarded with new negative factors. The 1.0100 area is a strong support, but with a steady and strong negative, it may not be able to resist – and then hello parity again!

Catalysts for the Dollar

Rabobank believes that the Fed seems to be going to announce another rate hike of 75 bps. Such a decision may be supported by an impressive report on the US labor market for July, published last week.

In addition, the US currency will find support from the demand for safe assets. The dollar is a widely used billing currency in the world by a wide margin. This means that the growth of the exchange rate tends to have a depressive effect on trade.

Another risk to the global recovery is a decline in demand for commodities from China.

The dollar will remain stable until the situation with risky currencies improves. Consequently, there is a potential for further growth not only this year, but also next year, bank analysts write.

Catalysts for the Euro

A steady sell-off, according to Rabobank, will provoke a number of factors. Firstly, it is a harsh winter for Europe. Cold weather plus the possibility of a complete shutdown of the gas supply via the Nord Stream-1 will do their job.

High energy prices are a serious obstacle for businesses and consumers. The chances of a recession in the euro bloc are high, this is the opinion of most strategists and economists.

As we can see, the euro does not have the slightest hope for growth. In such conditions, how not to fall lower than expected.