This week, the first cryptocurrency in the world has climbed to $ 23,000. However, look at the illustration below, which depicts the full collapse of bitcoin from absolute highs to present lows! The adjustment of recent weeks is barely even evident. The downward trend line remains important, which suggests that the "bearish" tendency endures. A reversal of $4–5 thousand from local lows is nothing for a bitcoin that can walk the same distance in a day. There is no positive news. Geopolitics remains exceedingly complex, and the basic background is even worse. And recently, it became public that Tesla was selling 75 percent of the coins Tesla, led by Elon Musk.
From our point of view, this is a watershed event for the whole cryptocurrency market. Although bitcoin did not react to it with a new collapse, we believe this is an acknowledgment of defeat. Recall that Tesla, which has a market valuation of roughly $ 2 trillion, invested one and a half billion last year in bitcoin. You could even buy a Tesla car for "bitcoin" within a couple of months. However, this possibility was withdrawn very quickly without explanation. Elon Musk has regularly induced "flights" in the bitcoin market, for which he has been repeatedly accused of manipulating exchange rates. However, Musk has always been supportive of cryptocurrencies, and Dogecoin even came to be labeled "the brainchild of Elon."
Nevertheless, Tesla got rid of 75 percent of the coins, and Musk rationalized this decision by noting that cash was needed. Let's figure it out: a firm with a capitalization of $2 trillion that can't find $1 billion in cash? Moreover, it is unlikely that she required cash. What is wrong with virtual money in a bank account? We believe that this is just an attempt by Musk to put a nice face at a lousy game. A company like Tesla could find the money it needs by utilizing a simple loan from a bank. Who is selling an asset that, according to Musk himself, has the future? If all large investors think that sooner or later, bitcoin would cost $ 100,000 or $500,000, then why sell it for $ 20,000?
Moreover, we are not talking about a small investor that expects to earn the fastest possible reward and who could truly require free money. We are talking about one of the largest companies in the world. We feel that this step indicates just one thing — bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market will continue their collapse.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "cue ball" were fixed below the level of $ 24,350. Thus, the aim is now the level of $12,426. Three times the "cue ball" sought to overcome the level of $ 18,500 (127.2 percent Fibonacci), but has not yet succeeded to do so. In essence, bitcoin can now fall to any value, even to zero. It is improbable that this will happen, of course, but we predict that the rate of 5-10 thousand dollars per coin will become a reality in 2022. Overcoming the $18,500 level or a comeback from $24,350 will be a fresh indication for sales.