FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 1, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

Daleep Singh, former US Deputy National Security Advisor in the Biden administration, spoke at the Senate Banking Committee. Like many politicians before him (and probably after him) he attacked cryptocurrencies. He stated that these facilitate ransomware attacks and contribute to the evasion of US sanctions.

However, Singh believes that the US government can take some steps to help offset the negative impact of cryptocurrencies. He pointed to the need to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC), which "is the best step we can take [to protect national interests] because it would displace the cryptocurrency ecosystem."

He's not the only one who thinks so. In an interview in May 2022, Franklin Noll — president of consulting firm Noll Historical Consulting — also suggested that CBDCs could displace cryptocurrencies.

In his opinion, CBDCs can help "displace private cryptocurrencies", with particular emphasis on "stablecoins focused on retail payment areas". He added that cryptocurrencies will not disappear, but "will remain in the niches of the payment system."

Singh and Noll's opinion, however, is something isolated in Washington salons. While China has already implemented its own CBDC - the digital yuan - the US is still only analyzing the issue. Only Project Hamilton has recently been completed. Its purpose was to explore the potential of the digital dollar. However, there is little indication that the results of these analyzes will trigger any CBDC issuance activities in the US.

Critics of such a cautious policy point out that CBDCs can revolutionize e.g. international trade. Thus, China with the use of the digital yuan will be able to damage the position of the dollar as a currency commonly used for cross-border transactions.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the three wave down move from the level of $1,664, the Ethereum bulls manage to reverse and now are approaching the last local high level again. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,677 and $1,680, so any breakout above this levels would open the road towards the February highs seen between $1,720 - $1,8742. On the other hand, a sustained breakout below the level of $1,487 would change the mid-term outlook to bearish, so please keep an eye on the $1,487 technical support (swing low). Any violation of this level would likely extend the drop towards $1,345, but in order to do this, the volatility must increase significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $1,672

WR2 - $1,654

WR1 - $1,642

Weekly Pivot - $1,635

WS1 - $1,624

WS2 - $1,616

WS3 - $1,581

Trading Outlook:

The Ethereum market has been seen making lower highs and lower low since the swing high was made in the middle of the August 2022 at the level of $2,029. The key technical support for bulls at $1,281 was broken already and the new swing low was established at $1,074. There is a clear test of the 50 WMA located at the level of $1,080, so any breakout below the moving average and a weekly candle close below moving average will be considered as another indication of the down trend continuation. If the down move will be extended, then the next target for bears is located at the level of $1,000.