FX.co ★ The naivety of the whole world regarding inflation is off the scale.

The key indices of the US stock market - Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - ended Tuesday with a slight increase, but in general, they all remain near their local lows. Thus, the technical picture does not change at all, and we continue to expect further falls in US indices and stocks. It should be noted that the foundation does not change along with the equipment. In quiet times, as a rule, the central bank does not make sudden movements. This is simply not required, so the markets with a 90% probability can predict the outcome of any meeting of the Central Bank. Now the situation is exactly the opposite. The markets are 90% confident that the Fed will continue to make significant adjustments to monetary policy because inflation has not yet reacted to any rate hikes or the start of the QT program. What does this mean? Only that the rates will continue to rise and, most likely, for a very long time. At least until the end of 2022, and most likely in 2023 too. Consequently, all this time, the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and the US stock market will continue to decline. The mechanism of this process is very simple and can be found in any economic textbook. And the most important thing is that it is not short-term. As long as the Fed tightens monetary policy, the stock market will feel pressure on itself.

But what is completely incomprehensible to us is criticism of Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, and even Joe Biden. Naturally, ordinary Americans or Europeans who are not too much interested in the economy, but are interested in prices at gas stations and in stores, can be said to be outraged by what is happening. If inflation of 10-15% per year is normal for Russia or Ukraine, then in the United States or the European Union it is force majeure. Therefore, now criticism is pouring out of all the cracks. In particular, parliamentary by-elections in the United States will be held in November this year and Democrats are already predicting defeat in them. Americans are not happy with how Joe Biden's administration is coping with its responsibilities and, in particular, how his government is countering inflation. However, we would like to remind you that high inflation is a direct consequence of two years of the pandemic, when the world's central banks prevented the economy from collapsing to zero, prevented a series of bankruptcies of large corporations, and generally did everything that needed to be done to get out of the crisis with minimal losses. In just two years, the EU and US economies have fully recovered, but now no ordinary people are interested in this. The pandemic ended abruptly and unexpectedly, which means we will judge the professionalism of the financial authorities by the prices in the store. This is about the logic that most people have now. From our point of view, it is incorrect, since it would be strange if inflation did not rise to current values. Now, at least the Fed is doing everything possible to stop the rise in prices, it is impossible to blame it for inaction.