FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2022

Yesterday, the euro had a respite before today's difficult day of raising the Federal Reserve rate - according to some data from the current 1.00% to 1.50%, according to others to 1.75%. The main scenario assumes that the price will break the nearest support at 1.0340 and move further towards 1.0170.

An alternative scenario - a chaotic price fluctuation up to an increase to 1.0600 is possible in the event of a slight hysteria - if the Fed raises the rate by the announced 0.50%, but the markets suddenly decide that this is not enough in the current realities and it was necessary to raise it immediately by 0.75%. The Marlin Oscillator tends to this option, which sharply turned up on a daily scale.

The monthly chart shows that the positions of the main descending option are strong – the price is systematically decreasing to the target range of 0.9790-1.0030 that we defined more than six months ago.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated with a range of 70 points. The Marlin Oscillator has left the oversold zone and is already approaching the zero neutral line. The market is ready for a new round of decline. Unless, of course, the technical picture on H4 is broken. We are waiting for the summary of the FOMC Fed.