FX.co ★ Goldman Sachs: oil is going to rise in price

Oil continued to rise in price in the morning hours of Tuesday, but later the quotes moved to a slight decrease. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July futures for WTI crude at the time of writing were trading at $118.25 per barrel, down 0.20% from the final level of the previous trading session. Futures for Brent crude for August delivery fell 0.24% to $119.22 a barrel.

The direction of movement of oil quotes on the charts is determined by the mood of traders who are trying to assess the balance of supply and demand in the global fuel market.

The day before it became known that the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, which is also the largest in the world, will raise prices for all grades of exported oil with delivery in July for the countries of Asia, northwestern Europe and the Mediterranean. From now on, the price of the main Arab Light grade supplied to Asia will rise by $2.1 per barrel, as a result, it will cost $6.5 more for the named regions than the oil basket of Oman and Dubai.

Last week, OPEC+ officials announced an increase in July and August oil production quotas by 648,000 barrels per day. Recall that earlier the EU intended to increase production by only 432,000. Judging by the quotes' reaction after this news was announced, we can say that bidders were not impressed with this decision. Let's not forget that the committee has been unable to reach the targets for several months now. This is probably why experts and traders do not expect any changes in the supply side of the global energy market from the new planned production level.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs bank, expecting a recovery in demand for fuel amid limited supply, predict continued growth in prices for benchmark oil in the third quarter. Experts are confident that Brent will reach $140 per barrel, over the next 12 months, 1 barrel of Brent oil will cost $135 on average. Thus, the Brent price forecast for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 is increased by $10 compared to the previous estimate.

The disruption in global energy supplies coincides with a recovery in fuel demand. Some countries are forced to use strategic reserves of petroleum products in order to somehow contain the rise in prices for their consumers. However, oil still continues to rise in price, this year having increased in price by more than one and a half times.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs believe that in order to restore balance in the oil market next year, it is important to reduce energy demand, which should keep pace with the slowdown in the global economy and increased production in OPEC countries (including Saudi Arabia and Iran).

According to the bank, world oil reserves today are 75 million barrels lower than previously predicted by experts. The production of this raw material in Russia has declined, but not as much as expected. True, the production of petroleum products in Russia will still fall. A recovery in demand in China is likely to help push the oil market back into deficit. It is expected that in the third quarter, the global oil deficit will average 400,000 barrels per day.