FX.co ★ EUR/USD: rebound seems over

The EUR/USD pair tried to rebound in the short term but the downside pressure remains high. It's located at 1.0715 at the time of writing and it seems very heavy. After its massive sell-off post the NFPs, ISM Services PMI, and Unemployment Rate positive data, a temporary rebound comes as no surprise.

Yesterday, the US Trade Balance came in at -67.4B versus -68.5B estimates, while today, the Final Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.1% matching expectations. Tomorrow, the Unemployment Claims are expected at 191K versus 183K in the previous reporting period. Also, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could really shake the markets on Friday.

EUR/USD Down Channel!

EUR/USD rebounded but it has found resistance at the 50% resistance level and at the downtrend line. As long as it stays below the downtrend line, the rate could develop a larger drop.

The current sideways movement could represent a downside continuation pattern. Only a valid breakout through 1.0766 and through the downtrend line invalidates the bearish scenario.

EUR/USD Forecast!

Dropping again below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.06922) and making a new lower low activates a downside continuation and represents a new selling opportunity.