FX.co ★ Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 18/05/2022

The correction that began on Monday ended quite quickly. It was supposed that at best, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's words would stop it, but in fact, it happened long before that. Namely, at the very opening of the US trading session. The fact is that US macroeconomic reports suddenly turned out to be noticeably better than forecasts. And instead of slowing down the main indicators, they accelerated each other.

The growth rate of retail sales increased from 7.3% to 8.2%, although they expected a decrease from 6.9% to 4.2%. That is, not only did the new data turn out to be significantly higher than the forecast, but also the previous ones were revised up. Unlike industrial production, whose previous results were revised from 5.5% to 5.4%. But its growth rate accelerated to 6.4%, instead of slowing down to 2.0%. And judging by these data, the American economy is doing just great. Especially when you consider that the data were published for April.

Retail Sales (United States):

But if macroeconomic statistics have completed the corrective movement, then Powell's words indicate the resumption of the trend for the strengthening of the dollar. Despite the recent slowdown in inflation, Powell did not say a word about the possibility of any revision of plans to raise interest rates. Powell once again stated that the central bank will raise the refinancing rate until inflation falls to target levels. That is, up to 2.0%. Given that it is now above 8.0%, then at least until the end of this year, during each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the refinancing rate will be raised by at least 0.25%. So by the end of the year, it is likely to be above 2.00%. But in general, there is nothing new in this, and Powell only confirmed the previously announced plans, regarding the implementation of which there were some doubts. Powell dispelled them.

But if Powell's words were not enough to immediately start the process of strengthening the dollar, then British inflation coped with this task perfectly, which rose from 7.0% to 9.0%. And this is the biggest value in more than forty years. But the Bank of England has recently assured everyone that in April, and the data were published for this month, inflation will peak, after which it will gradually decline. That's just according to the forecasts of the British central bank, it should have reached the level of 7.2%. But the reality turned out to be noticeably worse. And there is no doubt that such a high level of inflation will have an extremely negative impact on the economy of the United Kingdom. Yes, it already does. As a result, after a small local rebound, the market returned to the long-familiar trend of strengthening the US dollar.

Inflation (UK):

The GBPUSD currency pair formed a correction by more than 300 points, eventually returning the quote to the level of 1.2500. The subsequent price slowdown indicates an overheating of long positions.

The RSI H4 technical instrument entered the overbought zone during the acceleration. This signal confirms the overheating of long positions in the short term.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator are directed upwards, which corresponds to a corrective move in the market. The Alligator D1 indicator still signals a downward trend in the medium term. The moving MA lines are directed down.

Expectations and prospects:

Price stagnation within the level of 1.2500 signals the process of accumulation of trading forces. It will end soon and lead to subsequent price spikes.

If we assume that the correction is coming to an end, then keeping the price below the 1.2420 mark will lead to a full-fledged rebound of the price from the 1.2500 level. This step, in turn, will restart short positions.

An alternative scenario sees the current slump as an opportunity for a realignment of trading forces that would remove the overbought status from the pound. In this case, keeping the price above 1.2520 in a four-hour period allows for the subsequent formation of a corrective move.

Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to the main trend.