FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on May 5, 2022

As a result of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, investors decided to postpone a large-scale attack on counter-dollar assets. The reason for this decision was a slight slowdown by the Fed in the pace of balance sheet reduction: the markets expected that the central bank would immediately reduce the balance sheet at a rate of $95 billion per month, but it was decided to start with $47.5 billion per month, bringing the forecast rate to $95 billion. billion in three months. The rate, as expected, was increased by 0.50%. An increase of 0.50% was also announced for the next meeting in June.

The euro rose by 103 points, but we do not expect this momentum to develop. On Friday, the data on employment in the US is expected to reduce unemployment from 3.6% to 3.5%. As before, the euro has little cause for optimism, we just have to wait for the technical signs of a recovery in the strengthening of the dollar.

The price is in a downward trend on the daily chart – the Marlin Oscillator is in the negative area. If there are no new surprises, then Marlin will not enter the zone of positive values.

The situation is growing on the four-hour scale. To change the trend, at least one condition must be fulfilled: the price should fall under the MACD line (1.0556), the transition of the Marlin Oscillator to the negative area. Apparently, this will happen tomorrow.