FX.co ★ Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for January 18, 2023

EUR/USD is struggling to spike higher to our ideal target at 1.0933. We still think that a final short-term spike closer to 1.0933 could be seen to complete wave 3 and set the stage for a correction in wave 4 towards the 1.0437 - 1.0500 area.

That said, we are aware of the possibility that we have seen a fifth wave failure at 1.0869 that completed wave 3 and wave 4 already is in motion. If this is the case, then we need a direct break below support at 1.0726. Then fifth-wave failures are rare. So, taking for granted that a fifth-wave failure has been seen, is being over-confident, therefore it's not our preferred count.