FX.co ★ US stock market likely to maintain upward movement

S&P500

On Thursday, the main US stock indices advanced considerably after a 3-day rise. The Dow gained 1.2%, the NASDAQ grew by 1.3%, and the S&P 500 jumped by 1.2%.

The S&P 500 was trading at 4,388. It remained in the rage of 4,360 – 4,420.

Oil prices recovered yesterday amid optimistic sentiment in the stock market. On Thursday and Friday morning, oil increased by about $10 or 10%. Brent Crude rose to $109. So, oil prices managed to break out of the downward channel.

The US weekly jobless claims decreased to 214,000, a multi-year low. The number of continuing jobless claims remained unchanged at about 1.5 million people.

The conflict in Ukraine is clearly entering into a protracted phase. Hostilities have not stopped through. Missiles struck near Lviv's airport early Friday. However, the number of military operations has dropped in recent weeks, excluding the fierce fighting and bombing of Mariupol. Russia and Ukraine have failed to reach noticeable results in the ceasefire negotiations although negotiations are about to resume. Yet, there is a slim chance for a compromise.

Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the situation in Ukraine on Thursday. He said that the special operation was going according to plan. Perhaps the protracted phase of the conflict may help the parties to reach a compromise at least to a cease-fire.

Such a scenario is extremely bullish for global markets.

The ruble has strengthened this week. On the MICEX exchange, the US dollar and euro are trading at 103 and 113, respectively on Friday morning. The MICEX stock market will open no earlier than March 21 or later.

US industrial production expanded by 7.5% in February in annual terms and by 0.5% on the monthly basis. These are quite strong readings. The US real estate market is also buoyant. The annual pace of new residential construction is about 1.8 million units per year based on construction starts. At the same time, the fixed-rate mortgage rate also showed an increase. Mortgage rates climbed past 4% for the first time since May 2019. This is rather a high level for the US. The Fed is likely to raise the key rate to 1.9% by the end of the year. It means that the mortgage rate will continue to grow. It may cool the US real estate market by the end of the year

The US dollar index is trading at 97.90. It is likely to stay in the range of 97.60 - 98.20. It has been falling since the rate increase as traders have already priced it in. Besides, comments of Fed policymakers were rather cautious and subdued. However, the US dollar managed to hit a strong support level. It is likely to perform an upward reversal from this level.

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.2600. It is likely to remain in the range of 1.2500 - 1.2700. The pair is losing steam due to rising oil prices and the US currency's weakness. It could slide down to 1.2500. Bulls may take the upper hand provided that the US dollar will recover.

Conclusion: the US stock market is set to grow. It will maintain its upward movement in the short term although a noticeable corrective pullback is possible after three consecutive days of growth. If the situation in Ukraine does not deteriorate dramatically, stocks will continue to rise.