FX.co ★ AUD/USD analysis and forecast for March 15, 2022

In today's review of the AUD/USD currency pair, we will summarize the results of last week's trading, see what is happening with the price movement of this instrument at the time of writing this article, and also try to predict the further direction of the quote. However, first about a rather important event for the "Australian" that happened today. We are talking about the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which was published tonight. And from this document, it follows that the RBA will not rush to tighten its monetary policy. The main factors are inflation risks, as well as the situation in Ukraine, where the Russian Federation is conducting a military special operation. Regarding inflation, the RBA believes that until it is firmly fixed in the target range of the regulator (2-3%), it is impractical to raise the main interest rate.

And this is although inflation in the current conditions of supply chain failure and high energy prices has increased almost everywhere, including in Australia itself. Nevertheless, the RBA emphasizes its readiness to be patient and not rush to make changes to the current monetary policy. Meanwhile, the events in Ukraine further spur the growth of energy prices, which in turn leads to even higher inflation. The RBA described the economic situation in the country as stable, expecting continued growth in spending. In general, the Australian Central Bank takes a wait-and-see and to a greater extent a "dovish" position, which cannot but negatively affect the exchange rate of the Australian dollar. We look at the price charts.

Weekly

So, according to the results of last week's trading, the pair showed a decrease, which is not surprising, since it was the US dollar that dominated the foreign exchange market on March 7-11. Nevertheless, at the beginning of trading last week, the bulls on the "Aussie" set out to take the trades on the pair into their own hands and tried to raise the rate above the blue 50 simple moving average and enter the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud. As a result, nothing came of this venture, and the exchange rate turned southward, ending trading last five days at 0.7293, that is, right where the black 89- exponential moving average passes. Looking at the rather big lower shadow of the last candle, I will assume that it was the 89th EMA that limited the downward scenario for AUD/USD. However, by this point, the pressure on the pair continues, and the decline, given that it's still only noon on Tuesday, it's already big enough. The pair more than confidently passed down the blue Kijun line, and Tenkan does the same with the red line at the moment. If the bearish direction of the price continues, then its immediate targets will be strong and significant levels of 0.7100, 0.7050, and possibly 0.7000. In the current situation, it is difficult to count on an upward scenario, but if it suddenly happens, the nearest target will be a strong technical mark of 0.7300.

Daily

At yesterday's auction, the pair collapsed, breaking through the Kijun line, 89-EMA, and 50-MA. At the same time, pay attention to where exactly the pair met strong resistance from sellers and began to fall. It is at the level of 0.7300, where the orange 200-exponential moving average also passes. Today, at the moment of completion of the article, the pair is trading without a certain direction. It can be seen that the market has either taken into account the soft rhetoric of the published protocols or has already gotten used to it. In this situation, sales are naturally considered the most optimal positioning for AUD/USD. This is indicated by the technical picture and a significant discrepancy in the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA. I suggest looking for options for selling the pair after minor and short-term bounces up. Technically, the opening of short positions looks good after the price rises to the price area of 0.7235-0.7250.