FX.co ★ US stock market on March 15, 2022

S&P500

The US market declined on the first day of the week on expectations of a Fed rate hike.

The Dow remained at the same level, the NASDAQ fell by 2%, and the S&P 500 tumbled 0.7% on Monday.

The S&P 500 trades at 4,173 and is expected to be in the range between 4,140 and 4,210.

The US market tried to stage a rally yesterday on expectations of positive developments in the Russo-Ukrainian negotiations, but then the rise was broken and the day closed lower.

The Russo-Ukrainian talks have really taken a positive turn. They lasted at least six hours. A further meeting was scheduled for Tuesday. Zelensky assessed the course of the negotiations as generally positive. He said that there was hope for peace. Zelensky's office advisor Arestovich said that even if the negotiations fail today, the war will end in early May at the latest. The situation on the map of the conflict was generally unchanged yesterday, although rocket and bomb attacks continued in various places of the conflict.

There have been reports that Russia is asking China for assistance, including military supplies. This has been officially denied. The US has begun talks with China, seeking to prevent it from breaching the sanctions regime against the Kremlin.

In Asia, China's stock index plunged by 2.5%, while Japan's added 0.2%.

Oil continues the decline started last week. It has fallen by around $8. Brent is trading at $102. Last week, the oil price reached a whopping $130 on the peak of the escalating conflict in Ukraine.

The EU introduces a fourth package of sanctions against Russia. The most important in this package is a ban on investment in Russia's oil and gas complex and restrictions on ferrous metal exports from Russia to the EU. Sanctions against Moscow are intensifying as the Kremlin fails to stop its attacks on Ukraine.

Currently, there are two important topics in the market - the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the Fed's rate hike. The wholesale price inflation report will be released today. Prices are expected to rise by up to 1% for the month. This is another argument for the Fed's tough stance.

USDX is at 98.80 and is likely to trade in the range between 98.50 and 99.10. The dollar has pulled back slightly from the highs. However, it is poised to continue rising in case of tough statements from the Fed on Wednesday.

USD/CAD trades at 1.2820 and is seen moving in the range of 1.2700-1.2900.

The pair is rising as oil falls and the dollar strengthens. A break above 1.2900 and further gains are possible.

Markets are hoping for a positive outcome in the Russia-Ukraine talks. However, even if the talks fail, the US market could begin to rise as the conflict in Ukraine moves into a more peaceful phase.