FX.co ★ Russo-Ukrainian conflict, day 20

Major US stock market indices such as Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 50 closed Monday with new declines and are still trading around their local lows. As we can see, there is not even talk of markets calming down right now. The US stock market continues to move only downwards. The cryptocurrency market is frozen, but could resume falling at any time. Risky currencies are still very low against the dollar. The Russian rouble is being held back by the Russian central bank with all its might from a new collapse. The military operation in Ukraine continues. So far there is also no positive news to suggest a possible truce and cease-fire.

New airstrikes were carried out on Kharkiv and Kiev this night. The air raid alert is sounded several times a day. Overall, the situation remains extremely grave. Nevertheless, the Western media have begun to report that the military conflict could be over in as little as 10-14 days. According to some Western generals and politicians, Moscow is approaching a point where it simply does not have the necessary resources to continue its military operations. Currently, Moscow is trying to involve mercenaries from Syria in the military operation and has requested help from China. However, the number of conscripts from the Middle East amounts to several hundred at the most. China has not yet decided whether it will get involved in the conflict. It is unlikely to be a force that can increase pressure on Kiev. At the same time, this state of affairs does not mean that Russian troops will be deployed back in 10 days. Rather, we are talking about a kind of freezing of the conflict. If so, we will have a long-running conflict for several months or even years. Unfortunately, for the world economy and for the economies of individual countries, this situation will not be conducive to recovery. Already, the Western countries is actively supplying weapons and finances to Ukraine, as well as imposing more and more sanctions against Russia and Russian officials. There is no point even mentioning the lifting of sanctions against Russia until hostilities have ceased completely and Russian troops have left the territory of Ukraine.

Therefore, markets will continue to be in limbo and nervous. This means that there are likely to be further collapses in both the stock market and the currency market. The Baltic states are calling on the European Parliament to admit Ukraine to the EU as soon as possible. It is difficult to say how the Kremlin, which demands Ukraine's non-aligned status, will react to this proposal. However, the fact that Kiev's and Moscow's demands for each other are radically different is no longer a secret. That is why we believe that there is almost no chance of negotiations.