FX.co ★ EUR/USD: plan for the US session on March 11 (analysis of morning deals). Everything stays in its place

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1017 and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. The German data released in the first half of the day fully coincided with economists' forecasts, which did not provide any support for the European currency. There were no willing to sell euros, so I had to watch the trade in the side channel. It was not possible to achieve an update of the morning levels. For this reason, I have not seen any deals on the pair. For the second half of the day, the technical picture has not changed in any way. And what were the entry points for the pound this morning?

Now the situation is as follows: on the one hand, the ECB and the more aggressive policy that Lagarde talked about so much yesterday, on the other hand, the Federal Reserve System with its interest rate hike next week. Now, who will lead a tougher policy and will win in the current situation - the pair will go there. However, it is very difficult to say how the economies will behave in this case. A stronger United States will certainly force investors to maintain their positions on the dollar, counting on an aggressive increase in interest rates in the future. As for today's statistics, the second half of the day will not please much. An important task of the bulls for the American session will be to protect the new support of 1.0963, which was revised from the morning level of 1.0947. However, to return the market under its control, it would be nice to still get above 1.1017, where the moving averages are already playing on the side of the bears. At the time of writing the forecast, there was a test of this level, but the bears defended it very quickly. In the case of strong data on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations, as well as another sale of the European currency, only a false breakout at 1.0963 forms the first entry point into long positions in the expectation of the pair returning to the area of 1.1017. To see a larger upward movement in EUR/USD, active actions and a breakout of this range are needed. A decrease in the sentiment of American consumers, and they will be in any case, look at inflation, will lead to a top-down test of 1.1017, which will give a signal to buy the euro and open up the possibility of recovery to area 1.1066 and 1.1115. The breakdown of this range will also cancel out the bearish trend and hit the sellers' stop orders, even more, opening a direct road to the highs: 1.1176 and 1.1229, where I recommend fixing the profits. But do not forget the geopolitical situation: with the further aggravation of the conflict, the demand for the US dollar can quickly return. Given that the recent meeting of representatives of the two countries did not yield any results, it is most likely not necessary to expect serious demand for risky assets. The optimal scenario for buying would be a false breakdown of the minimum in the area of 1.0894, but it is possible to open long positions on the euro immediately for a rebound only below 1.0810 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears tried to gain a foothold at the daily lows but did not even reach the nearest support of 1.0947. Against this background, there was a return in demand for the European currency - especially after what Christine Lagarde said yesterday at a press conference. Sellers need to think about how to protect 1.1017 now, the first test of which has already occurred. Having released a pair above this range, demand for the euro will return. The formation of a false breakdown after strong US data will lead to a sell signal and the opening of new short positions to reduce the euro to the first important support of 1.0963. A breakdown of this area and a reverse test from the bottom up can take place very quickly, which will give an additional signal to open short positions already with the prospect of falling to the lows: 1.0894 and 1.0810. The downward movement will be fast, as a large number of buyers' stop orders are concentrated at these levels. The farthest target will be the 1.0772 area, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of the growth of the euro and the absence of bears at 1.1017, it is best not to rush with sales. It is possible that, like yesterday, the bulls will start acting more aggressively. A breakthrough of this level will also pull the sellers' stop orders. Therefore, the optimal scenario will be short positions when forming a false breakdown in the area of 1.1066. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.1115, or even higher - around 1.1176 with the aim of a downward correction of 15-20 points.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 1 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. The first ones turned out to be more, which led to an increase in the positive delta. In the context of the ongoing tough geopolitical conflict that has affected almost the whole world, it makes no sense to talk about what position investors held a week ago since everything is changing at lightning speed. The data that was yesterday no longer have any significance today, since no one knows how the sanctions imposed by the United States and EU countries will affect the Russian economy, as well as what the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will eventually lead to. The main question is how long it will all last. Against this background, it does not matter much what the policy of the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve System will be since, in the event of an aggravation of the military conflict, the markets will fly down again. Now Russia and Ukraine have sat down at the negotiating table, and much will depend on the results of these meetings - there will be a lot of them. This week, the European Central Bank will also hold a meeting and important February data on US inflation will be released, which will lead to a surge in volatility, but it is unlikely to correct the situation in favor of buyers of risky assets. I recommend continuing to buy a dollar. I advise you to be quite careful about risky assets and buy euros only as the tense relations between Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the USA weaken. Any new sanctions actions against the Russian Federation will have serious economic consequences, which will affect the financial markets, as well as affect not only the Russian ruble but also the European currency. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 214,195 to the level of 228,385, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 154,163 to the level of 163,446. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased to 64,939 against 59,306. The weekly closing price dropped from 1.1309 to 1.1214.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an active confrontation between buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.0960 will increase pressure on the euro. A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1020 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.