FX.co ★ Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/03/2022

Unfortunately, there is no talk of any de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine yet. So from the point of view of investors, the risks only increase. And we are talking about global risks. In such conditions, investors run away from risk in those instruments that they consider the safest. In the foreign exchange market, this is now exclusively the US dollar, which continues to grow steadily. So far, there is no reason to stop this trend. Of course, local rebounds are quite possible, and even inevitable. But they will be only temporary, not contrary to the general trend. The single European currency stands out at the moment by the fact that, in principle, it moves only in one direction. Without any local rebounds. It cannot go on like this for a long time, so at any moment it is possible, albeit short, but still the growth for the euro.

The EURUSD currency pair resumed its downward move, as a result of which the quote came close to the psychological level of 1.1000. The euro exchange rate lost about 4% for three weeks, which led to the prolongation of the medium-term downward trend.

The RSI technical instrument in H4 and D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which confirms the high interest of traders in short positions.

The MA moving lines on the Alligator H4 and D1 indicator indicate a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

At the moment, the quote is moving within the control level of 1.1000, while not reducing interest in the downward move. In order for the breakdown of such an important level to be counted, the quote needs to stay below 1.0950 in a four-hour period. In this case, the downward trend will be prolonged.

An alternative scenario of market development considers a reduction in the volume of short positions within the psychological level. This can lead to a temporary slowdown in the downward cycle.

Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short, intraday and medium term due to a downward trend.