FX.co ★ Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for February 24. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. Euro currency: slightly down

EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair moved very weakly again on Wednesday. Volatility of the day was only 57 points. It seems to be not very little, but still it is not even an "average" result. During the day, according to tradition, the pair first tried to grow, then tried to fall, but in the end, neither the first nor the second really worked out. There was no macroeconomic background today. Yesterday we said that the only report of the day on inflation in the EU will not cause any reaction with a probability of 99%, since this will be the second estimate for January. And so it turned out in practice. And there were simply no other important news and events today. Now all the attention of the market has shifted not even to geopolitics, but to the fall of the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market. Risky assets are being traded now with great pleasure, but with a negative.

Now consider the trading signals. It should be noted right away that in flat conditions (visible on higher timeframes), the pair simply ignores both important levels and important lines. This situation has been observed for several days, if not more. And even constant adjustment of levels and lines does not help. The Kijun-sen line generally changes its position every few hours. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to trade now. Today, for example, three signals were formed near the critical line and only in the last third case (a sell signal) the price managed to reach the target level of 1.1323. And even then, only because it was located at 19 points. In general, the first buy signal and the fourth sell signal could be profitable. The second and third buy signals were derived from the first buy signal. The last sell signal is derived from the fourth signal. Therefore, traders could even end today with a small profit.

COT report

The new Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which was released on Friday, showed a new strengthening of the bullish mood among professional traders. This time, the "non-commercial" group closed about 7,000 contracts for short positions on the euro and opened 5,000 contracts for long positions. Thus, the net position increased by 12,000, which is clearly visible on the second indicator in the chart above. The total number of long positions exceeds the number of short positions by 50,000, so now we can really say that a new upward trend is beginning to form. It would be possible to say, if not for one "but". The European currency is not growing. It does not grow even at a time when there seem to be technical grounds for this. And they are quite simple: the pair has been falling for 14 months, so a correction is a fairly likely scenario. However, the fundamental background does not allow the euro to grow, so it is located very close to its annual lows. Actually, only 100 points away from them. Moreover, after the quotes fell to the level of 1.1180 at the end of November, traders failed to adjust the currency pair normally. The highest deviation from the lows was 360 points. Thus, we would say that now the data of COT reports do not coincide with the fundamental background and the technical picture that we see on a daily basis. And this is very strange, given the small influence of central banks on the money supply at this time.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 24. The foreign exchange market is still not interested in geopolitics.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 24. Bank of England: inflation, inflation and only inflation.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on February 24. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

EUR/USD 1H

A descending trend line has finally been formed on the hourly timeframe and it even kept the pair below itself today (rebound). However, given the nature of the current movement, we have serious reasons to believe that it is very weak, and flat still prevails in the market. At this time, the price has approached the lower border of the horizontal channel near the 13th level. A new upward turn is possible. We allocate the following levels for trading on Thursday – 1.1192, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1482, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1387) and Kijun-sen (1.1340) lines. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events and publications are planned in the European Union on February 24. A report on GDP for the fourth quarter will be released today in the United States, but it is unlikely to provoke a reaction from traders, since this is the second estimate.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.