FX.co ★ Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 15

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A sell signal appeared after EUR/USD hit 1.1337. Coincidentally, the MACD line was moving below zero, so the pair dipped by more than 30 pips. Then, during the US session, the euro fell further to 1.1288, prompting a signal to buy. Since the MACD line was also in a good area, the pair increased by 30 pips.

The latest statements of ECB chief Christine Lagarde confirmed that the central bank will not rush to remove incentives in the eurozone. This is despite the persistent rise of inflation, which accelerated rapidly in the past months, putting pressure in some sectors of the economy. Lagarde obviously became more aggressive after the ECB meeting last month, refusing to rule out an interest rate hike in 2022.

A fairly large number of statistics is to be published in the Euro area today, and those may prompt volatility to surge in the markets provided that the figures turn out better than expected. EUR/USD is likely to climb up if business sentiment and present situation indices from the ZEW exceed expectations. Meanwhile, GDP data and foreign trade balance in the EU are unlikely to seriously affect the market. Strong US data on manufacturing and producer prices could turn the market around during the US session.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1329 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1368 (thicker green line on the chart). A rally will most likely occur if data from the eurozone exceed expectations.

But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it before taking long positions. It is also possible to buy at 1.1310, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1329 and 1.1368.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1310 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1275. Pressure will return if data from the eurozone turns out weaker than expected.

But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.1329, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1310 and 1.1275.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.