FX.co ★ How to trade GBP/USD on February 14? Simple tips for beginners.

Analysis of the previous deals:

30M chart of the GBP/USD pair.

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade in the same mode on Friday as it has been all week. These movements are perfectly visible in the chart above, and their nature is also perfectly clear. By and large, such a movement can be called a "semi-flat" and it is very dangerous for traders, especially beginners. The reason is: when a flat is formed in the market, it is understandable and clear. When there is a trend in the market, everything is also clear and understandable. When the movement is neither the first nor the second, most trading systems fail and we have a huge number of false signals at the exit. This week, there seemed to be an upward slope of movement, but at the same time, the pair constantly rolled back, adjusted and spent most of the week in the range between the levels of 1.3500 and 1.3600. There is no trend line or channel at this time. Macroeconomic statistics on Friday were published only in the UK and the reports were quite important, but contradictory. In particular, the GDP figures for different periods showed different dynamics and, therefore, traders could not interpret them unambiguously. The pound rose after the data was published, but at the same time, no GDP report can be called "unequivocally positive". Thus, this growth could not be related to "macroeconomics".

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

The technical picture looks even more confusing on the 5-minute timeframe. Not only has the pair spent the whole week in the semi-flat, but there are a lot of levels now, so the price regularly crosses them and forms signals that are not always strong and accurate. On Friday, the movement began with a buy signal near the 1.3523 level. After that, the price went up about 30 points, and then got into an absolute "grinder" of various levels. From above, four levels were waiting for it at once, which were located at a distance of 10-20 points from each other. Naturally, after overcoming one level, the price immediately rested on the next and it was impossible to open positions. As a result, the upward movement ended near the area of 1.3598-1.3603, from which a rebound followed. But by the time the pair got back to the lower level of this "grid", the day was already over and it was clearly not necessary to open new positions. Thus, by and large, novice traders had to work out only the first buy signal. It was possible to earn 20-30 points of profit on it.

How to trade on Monday:

The upward trend was canceled on the 30-minute TF, but a downward trend was not formed instead. The pair has been between the levels of 1.3488 and 1.3643 for five days. It is impossible to state a flat, but there is no trend now. Therefore, the situation for the pound is now as confusing and ambiguous as possible. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.3431-1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3513, 1.3563-1.3580, 1.598-1.3603, 1.3652-1.3660. When the price passes in the right direction after the transaction is opened, 20 points should be set to Stop Loss at breakeven. Not a single important publication, not a single important event is scheduled for tomorrow in the UK and America. Thus, novice traders will have nothing to react to during the day, as well as the entire market. Volatility may decrease, and the movement may remain as sideways and chaotic as possible.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.