FX.co ★ Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 25, 2022

Crypto Industry News:

Russian lawmakers are working on amendments to launch a national cryptocurrency exchange. These efforts are supported by both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia, which have long had opposing views on the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the country.

As reported by local media, members of the lower house of the Russian parliament, the Duma, were discussing changes to the country's cryptocurrency regulations "On Digital Financial Assets" with market stakeholders. Changes that would define the legal framework for a national stock exchange will first be presented to the central bank.

Sergei Altukhov, a member of the Duma's Economic Policy Committee, emphasized the fiscal legitimacy of such measures:

"It makes no sense to deny the existence of cryptocurrencies, the problem is that they circulate in a large stream outside of state regulation. That's billions of rubles of lost tax revenue to the federal budget."

In June, the head of the Duma's Financial Market Committee, Anatoly Aksakov, suggested that Russia's national cryptocurrency exchange could be launched under the Moscow Stock Exchange, a "respected organization with long traditions." In September, the Moscow Stock Exchange prepared a draft law on behalf of the central bank to allow trading in digital financial assets.

Earlier this month, a bill was submitted to the Duma that would legalize the mining and sale of mined cryptocurrencies. The act provides for the creation of a Russian platform for the sale of cryptocurrencies, but local miners will also be able to use foreign platforms. In the latter case, Russian currency controls and regulations would not apply to the transaction, but would have to be reported to the Russian tax authorities.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new yearly low at the level of $15,477 as the bearish pressure is still strong. There is no indication of the down trend on Bitcoin to terminate or reverse, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $13,563 (2019 high). The bulls bounce above the local trend line resistance, however, there is no follow up with this move up so far as the market keeps trading back inside the old, narrow range. The next technical resistance is seen at $17,103. The momentum bounces from the extremely oversold market conditions as well and is currently positive, so the bounce might extend higher.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $16,881

WR2 - $16,477

WR1 - $16,299

Weekly Pivot - $16,072

WS1 - $15,895

WS2 - $15,667

WS3 - $15,263

Trading Outlook:

The down trend on the H4, Daily and Weekly time frames continues without any indication of a possible trend termination or reversal. So far every bounce and attempt to rally is being used to sell Bitcoin for a better price by the market participants, so the bearish pressure is still high. The key long term technical support at the psychological level of $20,000 had been violated, the new swing low was made at $15,555 and if this level is violated, then the next long-term target for bulls is seen at $13,712. On the other hand, the gamechanging level for bulls is located at $25,367 and it must be clearly violated for a valid breakout in the long term.