FX.co ★ Forecast for AUD/USD on February 4, 2022

The Australian dollar was unimpressed yesterday by the European Central Bank's announcement to start raising rates this year and did not follow the euro, which added 1.23%. The aussie's growth was only 0.06% (2 points). Nevertheless, the upper shadow of the daily candle has almost touched the target level of 0.7171 and it can practically be considered worked out.

This morning, the price is decreasing from the level, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has not reached the zero neutral line, and is turning down. Employment data are released in the evening in the US, the forecast for new jobs in the non-farm sector is 150,000, which is a very good indicator with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Today we are waiting for the weakening of the Australian currency. With a high degree of probability, employment data in the US will come out worse, as it already happened on Wednesday, when ADP Non-Farm showed -301,000 jobs against an expectation of 185,000. But there may also be a speculative trick here - it is convenient to close positions on long positions of medium-sized players.

On the four-hour chart, a price divergence has formed with the Marlin Oscillator. The nearest support is the MACD's indicator line (0.7095), which almost coincides with the correction level of 38.2%. A deeper correction is possible to the level of 0.7065, which will be half of the increase from January 28. After the correction, we expect further growth of the Australian dollar to the targets of 0.7190, 0.7227.