FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on February 4, 2022

The outcome of yesterday's European Central Bank meeting, at which it was said that the central bank was not going to delay the rate hike for a long time, was a picture of investors leaving US values: the S&P 500 stock index collapsed by 2.44%, the yield on 5-year government bonds increased from 1, 60% to 1.67%, gold fell by 1.05% at the moment, but was successfully bought back, the dollar index fell by 0.68%. Against this background, the growth of the USD/JPY pair looks correlationally weak, except perhaps as a result of the growth of EUR/JPY cross rates by 1.69% and GBP/JPY by 0.68%.

Today, if the markets grow on optimistic US employment data (the forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is 110-150,000), the dollar may continue its inertial growth towards the resistance of the MACD line (115.40), but there is a high probability of weaker data, up to negative, as it was on Wednesday for ADP Non-Farm, where the index showed -301,000 against the expectation of 185,000, and then we expect the USD/JPY pair to fall and take a course for further decline to 113.32 - to the monthly price channel line .

On the H4 chart, the price is still under the red balance indicator line, that is, yesterday's growth was clearly within the correction. The Marlin Oscillator is staying in the negative area. Overcoming the price of the MACD line (114.38) will return the price to the downward direction. We are waiting for the release of US data.